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Edena_of_Neith
05-03-2011, 02:37 PM
For anyone who is truly interested in this subject, check this out:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

I don't have any explanation for the breakup of ice around the North Pole, seen in that picture. None. Not Global Warming. Not anything.

1. The Arctic Sea Ice maximum is in March. The Arctic Sea Ice minimum is in September.
It is only early May. That area of sea ice is normally solid in September.

2. The satellite is sometimes fooled by summer melt ponds. But the Arctic Melt Season does not begin until sometime in June. Currently, and for the past week, temperatures in that area have been far below freezing, far too cold for melt ponds.

3. It could be a one day glitch, or even a two or three day glitch, in the satellite itself. Except this has gone on for more than 3 days, and it's growing with each day.

4. There is a warm current that enters the Arctic Basin, from the North Atlantic, travelling up the west coast of Svalbard/Spitzbergen.
However, that current is never warm enough to melt or break up the area of ice in question, not even in September.

5. There is sub-surface warmth in the Arctic, underneath a layer of frigid water created by the Arctic Sea Ice, with which it protects itself.
Sometimes, the ocean is churned up, bringing this warmth to the surface, and causing thinning or breakage of the surface ice, or areas of open water (hence, the famous North Water between Ellesmere Island and Devon Island, and Greenland.)
However, such areas - or polynias - do not normally occur in the area in question, and when polynias do occur, they are not so large, not so disruptive, as what is being observed here. (The North Water is nothing like this, in size comparison.)

6. Global Warming projections show an ever increasing melt in late summer, coming from the coastlines, and reaching towards the North Pole, with the permanent ice shrinking back towards the Canadian Arctic Isles and northern Greenland.
That is to say, it is the fringes of the ice that are expected to go first, and then in late summer.
Not the heart of the ice pack, in early May (or anytime else.)

7. There is not, even in the Worse Case Scenarios, enough Global Forcing from Global Warming, the Sun, or any other known natural source, to cause such breakage as this. There simply is not enough warmth available, to cause this.

8. Although the Arctic is subject to violent storms that break up ice, the storms never normally break up this area of ice, even in September.

9. There are no active underwater volcanoes in this area, nor are any volcanic eruptions or explosions being reported, anywhere in this area. (Even if there were, it would take one heck of a lot of explosive power, to churn up the ocean enough, to produce disruption on this scale.)

10. Last and not least, some of the other maps that closely monitor the Arctic are showing the same thing. Certain maps that are less sensitive, do not show it very well, but most of the maps are showing this disruption to a lesser or greater extent. So there is verification of the findings shown on this particular map, from other sources.

Obviously, if the disruption closes up, that's the end of it ... but if it continues to grow and more and more open water appears, then it continues to be - at the least - a topic of discussion for those interested in the state of the Arctic Sea Ice.

I'm stumped. I don't have the faintest idea why this breakage, this disruption, is occurring.
(Even if mankind were to go in and deliberately set off explosives, to churn up the ocean and bring deep warmth to the surface, it would take one HECK of a lot of explosive firepower (even if we were talking nukes) to cause this large a disruption in the Ice Pack.)

Anyone care to take some credible hypothesizes on this?

Aloysius
05-03-2011, 04:59 PM
There is often a "hole" on the North pole sea ice satellite image, this is a problem related to the satellite, not the ice.


There is ice on the north pole, no problem, it just does not show on the map.

Edena_of_Neith
05-03-2011, 05:18 PM
I am not referring to the black circular area immediately around the pole.
That is, indeed, a problem with the satellites. They cannot 'see' that area.

It is the large area denoted in colors of yellow and green, where the ice cover is between 60% and 90%, that I am speaking of. (Or, put the other way, there is between 10% and 30% open water.)
This area, stretches from the open water on the European side of the Ice Pack, past the North Pole and far into the east Arctic.

Note that on all sides except the European side, this area of disruption is surrounded by pretty much solid ice cover (that is, 97% or greater ice cover, 3% or less open water.)
That's quite normal. It's the disruption in the central Arctic, stretching down to the European edge of the Ice Pack, that is confounding.

EDIT:

Look at the Kara Sea. That's almost incredible.
There's a lot of solid ice in the Kara Sea, and indeed further west in the Barents Sea east of Svalbard/Spitzbergen.
Solid ice there, then you go further north, and the ice is disrupted.

(really puzzled look)

You'd think that if some force or warming was disrupting the Ice Pack in the central Arctic, it most certainly would be simply shredding the ice in the Kara Sea and northeast Barents Sea. But it isn't.

Aloysius
05-03-2011, 05:49 PM
It's probably colder near the continental masses than in the middle of the ocean. Anyway, if something is effectively strange, it will be explained in the next NSDIC monthly bulletin. Just wait two or three days...
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

AZRogue
05-04-2011, 03:12 AM
It's La Nina's fault. Every time I turn around, I see La Nina blamed for this and that, so am assuming it is the "official" scientific theory until I hear otherwise.

Edena_of_Neith
05-04-2011, 06:18 AM
It's probably colder near the continental masses than in the middle of the ocean. Anyway, if something is effectively strange, it will be explained in the next NSDIC monthly bulletin. Just wait two or three days...
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Thank you. I'll have a look at the link.

AZRogue, as well as I know, the El Nino / La Nina pattern wouldn't account for this either (they call it the ENSO.)
Even the entire greater ENSO / Arctic Oscillation pattern, wouldn't account for this ... I don't think.

(just puzzled)

Aloysius
05-04-2011, 02:06 PM
Thank you. I'll have a look at the link.

(just puzzled)
The bulletin for April is out. They don't talk at all about something unusual...