Next country to revolt ?

[doc]

First Tunisia now Egypt what's the next country in the region to have a Social Network Revolt ?

I would think Libyia but the Big Q would sic the army on them, Iran would be nice but the Imam's would go bonkers. So I'll go for Canada instead.

[The Winslow]

I wish it'd be France. I wouldn't mind seeing Sarkozy fleeing away like Ben Ali did. But I don't have a good enough opinion of my fellow countrymen to dare hope they'd be cognizant enough to notice the pattern 20 years before the Tunisians did.

[doc]

I thought they were already revolting. Sorry couldn't resist. I don't think any country in Europe proper would do anything on the level of Egypt and Tunisa their governments just aren't repressive enough,. but the Africian/ Middle Eastern countries are primed to go up.

[Name Lips]

Also, no matter how restrictive the government, people are less likely revolt if they're generally safe and prosperous, and if they're afraid of a bloody military crackdown.

It seems like in Egypt people were sick and tired of being poor and unemployed, but they also weren't afraid that the military would be used to inflict mass slaughter if they rebelled. Bad recipe for the ruling powers.

[Utrecht]

Yemen is likely the next one.

[Ancalagon]

Yemen is the only one where I heard there was some really serious grumbling - but the country is almost a failed state anyway so...

[Aloysius]

Yemen is likely the next one.

Yup, that's my bet as well. If Mubarak fall, Yemen will probably follow. After that... Libya will be surrounded from both sides, but I'm strictly unable to guess what measure of resistance still exist in this country, and it has a lot of oil & gas, something that's not good to make a democratic revolution.
Jordan ? It's not oppressive enough IMHO. Morocco has its divine right monarchy which seems stronger, and Algeria has already suffered so much from violence I don't think they will go against the army.
Saudia Arabia... That would be wild, and would send the diplomats, the spies and the traders of the world into frenzy. Could be fun to watch, from afar.


edit : Mauritania is another possibility. It was on the road to democracy, but a military coup ended this experience abruptly. And you have the new and reduced Sudan, just south to Egypt.

[Cat of Ulthar]

Yemen doesn't have much of a government any way, the tribes pretty much all have their own rule, so a revolt will not be very influencial outside of Sanaa and its direct surroundings.

Speaking with a cross section of Middle East specialists yesterday, most likely seems to be Sudan.

[Brynja]

I am not sure wether to be heartened that oppressive goverments are going or terrified they will be replaced with islamicists.

[Cat of Ulthar]

It's hard to assess. In Egypt the muslim fundamentalist aren't very popular; Egyptians have a healthy distaste for fanatics. However, they are the biggest opposition party, and so most likely group to seize power.

I hope things get resolved soon; Egypt's main source of income is tourism and it's the high season, they are losing money head over feet at the moment.

I was at university yesterday to pick up my diploma (thanks), and the teachers were working very hard to get the students back who just had gone to Cairo ten days ago to do a semester there.

[Andreas]

My bet is Pakistan with a 1 to 10 sidebet for full blown nuclear war with India in the confusion of the revolt.

[Megamieuwsel]

I think it depends n how well this revolt in Egypt will resolve;
If it turns into a chaos and power-vacuum, this could dampen the vigor of potential protesters elswhere.
If it goes the way most people consider preferrable(ie.- an orderly and structured transform of gouvernment) it'll be like holding a torch to the Gunpowderkeg, the Middle East is.
Expect some bloodshed either way.

[Aloysius]

Expect some bloodshed either way.

IIRC, the body count is 200 dead in Tunisia, and between 300 and 500 in Egypt.

[Trainz]

Americans pass for a bunch of uneducated hicks who don't know shit about the rest of the world.

But you guys always impress me with how much you keep track of other countries. I'm not aware of half the shit you guys talk about.

I feel dumb.

[Ergeheilalt]

Americans pass for a bunch of uneducated hicks who don't know shit about the rest of the world.

But you guys always impress me with how much you keep track of other countries. I'm not aware of half the shit you guys talk about.

I feel dumb.

NPR moar, Paco. I set it as my wake-up alarm and hear 2 hours of Morning Edition every day as I desperately try to sleep through it.

I learn quite a bit through osmosis (and the snooze button).

[TiQuinn]

NPR moar, Paco. I set it as my wake-up alarm and hear 2 hours of Morning Edition every day as I desperately try to sleep through it.

I learn quite a bit through osmosis (and the snooze button).

Ditto. Though I gotta admit, I tend to ignore the regular stories about the third world shitholes that they do every morning.

[Janos]

Ditto. Though I gotta admit, I tend to ignore the regular stories about the third world shitholes that they do every morning.

I just read a lot but tend to do the same thing, especially with African nations. Europe, Northern Africa, and the Pacific I pay attention to, but I tend to have a bad case of TIA from Blood Diamond.

[The Winslow]

Transient ischemic attack?

[Janos]

Transient ischemic attack?

"This is Africa", (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&biw=1276&bih=592&q=This+is+Africa&aq=f&aqi=g10&aql=&oq=)basically, shitty stuff happens daily in Africa, and has for a very long time no matter what anyone does, so get used to it and move along. The term has been around awhile, but got discussed heavily in the movie Blood Diamond (where I picked it up).

[Edena_of_Neith]

(silly)

That's it.

Enough of this news nonsense.

The Grand Theocracy of Edenaland, I hereby declare! (All 161 states, included)

Yep, yep. The Grand Theocracy of Edenaland, will be the next nation to rise.

And ALL other nations, shall bow to it!

Why?

Because as that person in Knight of the Dinner Table said: When you're the last person on the board with nuclear weapons, you don't NEED experience points!

Weep and despair, it will avail you not!

(Oh, and English will be abolished, too, to be replaced by Edenaise. Get used to it.)

[Aloysius]

No more Mubarrak ! :cloud9:

[Name Lips]

I guess not Algeria:

Algeria police stifle Egypt-inspired protest (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41545522/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/)

Nip it in the bud, before it gathers momentum.

[Cat of Ulthar]

The government in Algeria is basically the army, whereas the army in Egypt carefully didn't do anything against the protesters (though one of my translators, who is an Egyptian, maintains that Tantawi, who is now in effect in charge in Egypt, wanted to shoot the demonstrators).

[Pigs in Space]

The government in Algeria is basically the army, whereas the army in Egypt carefully didn't do anything against the protesters (though one of my translators, who is an Egyptian, maintains that Tantawi, who is now in effect in charge in Egypt, wanted to shoot the demonstrators).

Wevolution has happened in plenty of places where that's been the case...

[Aloysius]

Bahrain ! http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/bahrain/8326534/Bahrain-protesters-threaten-Egypt-style-permanent-demonstration.html


And that will be a starter... :D http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/15/bahrain-stress-sectarian-lines

[Harry]

Wisconsin:

Wis. Democrats Flee To Prevent Vote On Union Bill

http://www.scpr.org/news/2011/02/17/wis-democrats-flee-to-prevent-vote-on-union-bill/

A group of Democratic lawmakers in Wisconsin blocked passage of a sweeping anti-union bill Thursday by ignoring orders to attend a vote. Instead, they left the state to force Republicans to negotiate over the proposal.

As ever-growing throngs of protesters filled the Capitol for a third day, the 14 Democrats disappeared from the grounds. They were not in their offices, and aides said they did not know where any of them had gone. A state police search is under way.

Hours later, one Democrat told The Associated Press that the group had left Wisconsin.

Sen. Jon Erpenbach said Democrats fled to delay consideration of the bill in the hopes that Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Republican lawmakers would discuss changes.

"The plan is to try and slow this down, because it's an extreme piece of legislation that's tearing this state apart," Erpenbach told AP in a telephone interview.

He refused to say where he was. Other Democratic lawmakers sent messages over Twitter and issued written statements, but did not say where they were.

Republicans hold a 19-14 majority in the state Senate, but they need at least one Democrat to be present before taking a vote on the bill.

Republican Sen. Glenn Grothman called it an extreme move, both by his Democratic colleagues and the teachers supporting them.

"I feel sorry for the parents who have to pay for an additional day of day care by surprise," he said. "And I also feel sorry for the children that the parents are being bad role models today."

As Republicans tried to begin Senate business Thursday, observers in the gallery screamed "Freedom! Democracy! Unions!" Opponents of the bill cheered when a legislative leader announced that there were not enough senators present to proceed.

Authorities said an estimated 25,000 people participated in Thursday's protest; nine demonstrators were arrested.

The proposal marks a dramatic shift for Wisconsin, which passed a comprehensive collective bargaining law in 1959 and was the birthplace of the national union representing all nonfederal public employees.

In addition to eliminating collective bargaining rights, the legislation also would make public workers pay half the costs of their pensions and at least 12.6 percent of their health care coverage, increases Walker calls "modest" compared with those in the private sector.

Meanwhile, thousands of university students walked out of class to protest Walker's budget repair bill.

Students marched from campus toward the Capitol, where they joined the throngs of other demonstrators from around the state. Police blocked off side streets for the six-block procession.

The students carried homemade signs, boom boxes and foam fingers, and wore the university's red and white colors. Organizers called out chants on megaphones.

Maxwell Love, a sophomore at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, says that no matter what happens in the Legislature, the protest has been a success.

"We had elementary, we had middle school and high school showing solidarity and learning about the civic engagement process," he said. "You know, I learned so much spending this much time at the Capitol. I can't imagine how this is affecting our young generation."

[Harry]

Washington, DC:

Leaders up the ante on government shutdown threat

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/02/17/6074524-leaders-up-the-ante-on-government-shutdown-threat

From NBC’s Shawna Thomas and Carrie Dann
At least some Congressional leaders aren’t backing down from a confrontation that could have Washington D.C. partying like it’s 1995.

House Speaker John Boehner said Thursday that he will not support a temporary measure to fund the government at current levels, even if a larger federal spending bill – called a “continuing resolution” – does not pass before a March 4 deadline. If no agreement is reached on the stopgap measure, a federal shutdown akin to one in the mid-1990s could result until a funding bill is passed.

"I'm not going to move any kind of short-term [continuing resolution] at current levels," Boehner told reporters today. "When we say we’re going to cut spending, read my lips: we’re going to cut spending.”

While some GOP leaders are downplaying the threat of another prolonged federal closure, Boehner’s unequivocal call to require at least some cuts from 2010 spending levels in order to keep the federal government’s lights on isn’t sitting well with Democrats, who accuse House Republicans of engaging in a high-stakes game of chicken.

His remark prompted a furious and almost immediate response from Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid, who appeared before cameras shortly after Boehner’s press conference to slam the House leader.

“We are terribly disappointed that Speaker Boehner can't control the votes in this Congress to prevent a shutdown of government,” Reid said. “And now he is resorting to threats to do just that without any negotiation.”

Asked whether Boehner will stick to his promise to cut spending even if it results in a federal blackout, a spokesman said that blame for a shutdown should be pinned on the Democrats, not on the GOP.

"All the Speaker said is that any short-term [continuing resolution] must cut spending," said Boehner spokesman Michael Steel. "If Sen. Reid wants to shut down the government rather than cut spending, that’s entirely on him."

The last government shutdown occurred in December 1995, when clashes between President Bill Clinton and the Republican-controlled House prompted the halting of many federal services and caused thousands of federal employees to stay home on furlough.

That political battle ultimately resulted in a popularity boost for Clinton. A Gallup poll released during the shutdown showed that only a quarter of Americans faulted the president for the shuttering of some federal agencies while nearly half blamed congressional Republicans.

[shiningbrow]

I miss Madison at times like this.

[Edena_of_Neith]

Now I know why the current heat wave, hitting the Midwest ... all that hot air, out of Madison.

I'm reading that the trouble is spreading, occuring in Ohio and Indiana.

Also, I read that the Tea Party ran the Democratic State Senators out of their hotel in Rockford, Illinois.
The Democrats, according to what I read, scattered in all directions, to evade the Tea Party, with one of them actually saying 'It's an Every Man For Himself situation.'

Perhaps, in the not too distant future, our local Englewood Herald (here in Southwest Florida) will have front page headlines titled: 'Wisconsin Legislator Rumored to be in Englewood, Authorities Uncertain.' ?

And you know, Redistricting is about to occur. In a full 20 states, the Republicans are about to district to suit themselves. Through Reapportionment and Redistricting, the Republicans are expected to gain another 40 to 50 seats in the House, just from those alone.
Now, Texas Democrats - a while back - fled Texas for Oklahoma, to protest Republican redistricting.

What if ...

What if uprisings over budget cutbacks cause a repeat of the Wisconsin situation in a dozen states, and ...
Democrats repeat the Texas flight in a dozen states over redistricting by Republicans ...
Republicans in some Democratic States respond by fleeing themselves.

Thus ...

Newspaper Headlines:

'5 Arkansas Representatives spotted in Michigan, 2 in New York, 1 in Montana.'
'15 New York Representatives missing, 5 thought to be in California, 1 known to be in Hawaii, 1 thought to have fled to Alaska, 3 in Illinois, the rest unaccounted for.'
'8 Michigan Representatives missing. 3 thought to be in Florida (where it's warmer anyways), 1 thought to have gone to Puerto Rico, 3 staying with allies in Minnesota, 2 in Pennsylvania.'
'Representatives turned back at Ohio Bridge, Kentucky State Troopers monitoring all vehicular traffic into and out of state from North' ('What goes on in the North, stays in the North and out of Kentucky' says Kentucky Governor.)
'5 representatives from Georgia turned back from Indiana.' ('What goes on in Dixie, stays in Dixie' says Indiana Governor.)

Of course, many state governments might shut down as a result of the minor fact no legislators are there to run the place.

But if the Federal Government itself is going to shut down, then who can blame the poor states? After all, it's the Big Fella himself, Uncle Sam, who is leading the way.

Will this happen?
Beats me. In the current state of affairs (the Supreme Court has just agreed to hear ONCE MORE the legitimacy of our President's, Presidency, I read ... I still can't believe I read that, and I don't believe it ... I won't believe it, either, unless the Supreme Court makes a public announcement on such a thing) basically anything could happen.

I do recall saying, a short while back, that things were a wee bit tumultuous in my country right now ...

[Hatter]

Now, Texas Democrats - a while back - fled Texas for Oklahoma, to protest Republican redistricting.

I think you mean they fled to New Mexico.

[Edena_of_Neith]

I think you mean they fled to New Mexico.

I think they did. I think they went to both Oklahoma and New Mexico, but don't remember, really.

I guess that's the point, though.

If we have all these dozens of legislators fled to other states, holed up here and there and everywhere, while wild rumors circulate where they are or might be next, who is after them and who is not, whether that's legal, whether any of it is ethical, the National Esquirer talks about Aliens taking over legislators and this accounting for their behavior ...

Nobody will know where anyone is, or could be, or might be, or might be next. Hide and Seek, Government Style. The Children at Play.

(grins darkly)

Fun times. Why, I'm sure many would be in Florida, funning and sunning themselves on the beach (on the taxpayer's dime, too) while it's cold and gloomy at home.

[Edena_of_Neith]

Look on the bright side.

If they were all doing that, they wouldn't be doing their so called job.

When our government is unable to actually do it's job, pass any legislation, THAT'S when most Americans breathe a giant sigh of relief.

[Schizm]

ok, going back to topic here on the middle east:

let's look at the long term future of the region, and of north africa for that matter - and we'll see that the whole area is just fucked in general, and is only going to get way, way worse.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/20/arab-nations-water-running-out


What does the Arab world do when its water runs out?

Water usage in north Africa and the Middle East is unsustainable and shortages are likely to lead to further instability – unless governments take action to solve the impending crisis

Poverty, repression, decades of injustice and mass unemployment have all been cited as causes of the political convulsions in the Middle East and north Africa these last weeks. But a less recognised reason for the turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Yemen, Jordan and now Iran has been rising food prices, directly linked to a growing regional water crisis.

The diverse states that make up the Arab world, stretching from the Atlantic coast to Iraq, have some of the world's greatest oil reserves, but this disguises the fact that they mostly occupy hyper-arid places. Rivers are few, water demand is increasing as populations grow, underground reserves are shrinking and nearly all depend on imported staple foods that are now trading at record prices.

For a region that expects populations to double to more than 600 million within 40 years, and climate change to raise temperatures, these structural problems are political dynamite and already destabilising countries, say the World Bank, the UN and many independent studies.

In recent reports they separately warn that the riots and demonstrations after the three major food-price rises of the last five years in north Africa and the Middle East might be just a taste of greater troubles to come unless countries start to share their natural resources, and reduce their profligate energy and water use.

"In the future the main geopolitical resource in the Middle East will be water rather than oil. The situation is alarming," said Swiss foreign minister Micheline Calmy-Rey last week, as she launched a Swiss and Swedish government-funded report for the EU.

The Blue Peace report examined long-term prospects for seven countries, including Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, the Palestinian territories and Israel. Five already suffer major structural shortages, it said, and the amount of water being taken from dwindling sources across the region cannot continue much longer.

"Unless there is a technological breakthrough or a miraculous discovery, the Middle East will not escape a serious [water] shortage," said Sundeep Waslekar, a researcher from the Strategic Foresight Group who wrote the report.

Autocratic, oil-rich rulers have been able to control their people by controlling nature and have kept the lid on political turmoil at home by heavily subsidising "virtual" or "embedded" water in the form of staple grains imported from the US and elsewhere.

But, says Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East programme at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic Studies, existing political relationships are liable to break down when, as now, the price of food hits record levels and the demand for water and energy soars.

"Water is a fundamental part of the social contract in Middle Eastern countries. Along with subsidised food and fuel, governments provide cheap or even free water to ensure the consent of the governed. But when subsidised commodities have been cut, instability has often followed.

"Water's own role in prompting unrest has so far been relatively limited, but that is unlikely to hold. Future water scarcity will be much more permanent than past shortages, and the techniques governments have used in responding to past disturbances may not be enough," he says.

"The problem will only get worse. Arab countries depend on other countries for their food security – they're as sensitive to floods in Australia and big freezes in Canada as on the yield in Algeria or Egypt itself," says political analyst and Middle East author Vicken Cheterian.

"In 2008/9, Arab countries' food imports cost $30bn. Then, rising prices caused waves of rioting and left the unemployed and impoverished millions in Arab countries even more exposed. The paradox of Arab economies is that they depend on oil prices, while increased energy prices make their food more expensive," says Cheterian.

The region's most food- and water-insecure country is Yemen, the poorest in the Arab world, which gets less than 200 cubic metres of water per person a year – well below the international water poverty line of 1,000m3 – and must import 80-90% o f its food.

According to Mahmoud Shidiwah, chair of the Yemeni water and environment protection agency, 19 of the country's 21 main aquifers are no longer being replenished and the government has considered moving Sana'a, the capital city, with around two million people, which is expected to run dry within six years.

"Water shortages have increased political tensions between groups. We have a very big problem," he says.

Two internal conflicts are already raging in Yemen and the capital has been rocked by riots this month. "There is an obvious link between high food prices and unrest [in the region]. Drought, population and water scarcity are aggravating factors. The pressure on natural resources is increasing, and the pressure on the land is great," said Giancarlo Cirri, the UN World Food Programme representative in Yemen.

"If you look at the recent Small Arms Survey [in Yemen], they try to document the increase in what they call social violence due to this pressure on water and land. This social violence is increasing, and related deaths and casualties are pretty high. The death tolls in the northern conflict and the southern conflict are a result of these pressures," said Cirri.

Other Arab countries are not faring much better. Jordan, which expects water demand to double in the next 20 years, faces massive shortages because of population growth and a longstanding water dispute with Israel. Its per capita water supply will fall from the current 200m3 per person to 91m3 within 30 years, says the World Bank. Palestine and Israel fiercely dispute fragile water resources.

Algeria and Tunisia, along with the seven emirates in the UAE, Morocco, Iraq and Iran are all in "water deficit" – using far more than they receive in rain or snowfall. Only Turkey has a major surplus, but it is unwilling to share. Abu Dhabi, the world's most profligate water user, says it will run out of its ancient fossil water reserves in 40 years; Libya has spent $20bn pumping unreplenishable water from deep wells in the desert but has no idea how long the resource will last; Saudi Arabian water demand has increased by 500% in 25 years and is expected to double again in 20 years – as power demand surges as much as 10% a year.

The Blue Peace report highlights the rapid decline in many of the region's major water sources. The water level in the Dead Sea has dropped by nearly 150ft since the 1960s. The marshlands in Iraq have shrunk by 90% and the Sea of Galilee (Lake Kinneret) is at risk of becoming irreversibly salinised by salt water springs below it.

Meanwhile, says the UN, farm land is becoming unusable as irrigation schemes and intensive farming lead to waterlogging and desalination.

Some oil-rich Arab countries are belatedly beginning to address the problem. Having drained underground aquifers to grow inappropriate crops for many years, they have turned en masse to desalination. More than 1,500 massive plants now line the Gulf and the Mediterranean and provide much of north Africa and the Middle East's drinking water – and two-thirds of the world's desalinated water.

The plants take salty or brackish water, and either warm it, vaporise it and separate off the salts and impurities, or pass it through filters. According to the WWF, it's an "expensive, energy intensive and greenhouse gas-emitting way to get fresh water", but costs are falling and the industry is booming.

Solar-powered plants are being built for small communities but no way has been found to avoid the concentrated salt stream that the plants produce. The impurities extracted from the water mostly end up back in the sea or in aquifers and kill marine life.

Only now are countries starting to see the downsides of desalination. Salt levels in the Arabian Gulf are eight times higher in some places than they should be, as power-hungry water plants return salt to an already saline sea. The higher salinity of the seawater intake reduces the plant's efficiency and, in some areas, marine life is suffering badly, affecting coral and fishing catches.

Desalination has allowed dictators and elites to continue to waste water on a massive scale. Nearly 20% of all Saudi oil money in the 1970s and 80s was used to provide clean water to grow wheat and other crops in regions that would not naturally be able to do so. Parks, golf courses, roadside verges and household gardens are all still watered with expensively produced clean drinking water. The energy – and therefore water – needed to keep barely insulated buildings super-cold in Gulf states is astonishing.

A few Arab leaders recognise that water and energy profligacy must be curbed if ecological disaster is to be avoided. In Abu Dhabi, which is building Masdar, the $20bn futuristic city to be run on renewable energy, the environment agency is spearheading a massive drive to reduce water use. Concrete is replacing water-hungry grass verges and new laws demand water-saving devices in all buildings.

"We cannot go on giving free water and energy. It's not benefiting anyone. We have to change and we will change. We know we must find common solutions," says Razan Khalifa al-Mubarak, assistant head of the environment agency.

"Allah does not like those who waste," says Talib al-Shehhi, director of preaching at the ministry of Islamic affairs. "Safeguarding resources and water especially is central to religion. The Qu'ran says water is a pillar of life and consequently orders us to save [it], and Muhammad instructs us to do so."

Water awareness is definitely growing, says Kala Krishnan, member of an eco club at the large Indian school in Abu Dhabi. "People were amazed when we showed them how much they use in a day. We stacked up 550 one-litre bottles and they refused to believe it. Now schools are competing with each other to reduce water wastage."

More than 2,000 mosques in Abu Dhabi have been fitted with water-saving devices, which is saving millions of gallons of water a year when people wash before prayer. Other UAE states are expected to follow.

The more drastic response to the crisis is to shift farming elsewhere and to build reserves. Saudi Arabia said in 2008 it would cut domestic wheat output by 12.5% a year to save its water supplies. It is now subsidising traders to buy land in Africa. Since the troubles in Egypt and north Africa, it has said it aims to double its wheat reserves to 1.4m tonnes, enough to satisfy demand for a year.

Countries now recognise how vulnerable they are to conflict. The UAE, which includes Abu Dhabi and Dubai, has started to build the world's largest underground reservoir, with 26,000,000m3 of desalinated water. It will store enough water for 90 days when completed. The reasoning is that the UAE is now wholly dependent on desalination to survive.

"Wars can erupt because of water," said Mohammed Khalfan al-Rumaithi, director general of the UAE's National Emergency and Crisis Management Authority last week. "Using groundwater for agriculture is risky. If it doesn't harm us it will harm other generations," he told the Federal National Council.

"We suffer from a shortage of water and we should think about solutions to preserve it rather than using it for agriculture," he said.

Water shortages, concludes the Blue Peace report, are now so alarming that in a few years opposing camps will have little choice but to co-operate and share resources, or face ruinous conflict. That way, it says, instead of a potential accelerator of conflict, the water crisis can become an opportunity for a new form of peace where any two countries with access to adequate, clean and sustainable water resources do not feel motivated to engage in a military conflict. It sounds optimistic, but the wind of change blowing through the region suggests everything is possible.
IN NUMBERS: Middle East water facts

10.7% Food-price inflation in Egypt during 2010.

25% Expected increase in Saudi water demand up to 2020.

2.9% Yemen population growth each year.

14 cubic kilometres of water loss from Dead Sea in the past 30 years (1980-2010).

240 cubic metres per person annual water use in Israel.

75 cubic metres per person annual water use in Palestinian West Bank.

$0.53 Cost per cubic metre of desalinated water.

120 Desalination plants throughout UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran.

[Cat of Ulthar]

From my notes from the talk I had 7 April 2008 with Djoeke Adimi-Koekkoek, First Secretary of Development, Gender and Social Support at the Dutch Embassy in Yemen:

Yemen is experiencing a massive population growth, something the Yemenis are starting to realize now. Contraceptives are available in the cities, but the countryside is lacking in them, even though there is a demand for it. They either are not available, or people aren't aware of where to get them.
Unemployment is high, and part of the people who are employed have "fake jobs", meaning their job only exists on paper and pay is often minimal. Benefits are 2000 riyals (9.32 dollars) a month. Even in Yemen that's nothing.
Mortality among women giving birth is very high. More than 90% of women deliver at home, not going to the hospital unless something is going wrong. By then it's usually too late, as getting to the hospital from your mountain village usually takes hours.
Hence the average age of death is about 50-60 both for women and for men; women die giving birth and men of gun or work accidents.
There is lots of ground water in the form of underground springs in Yemen, but the problem is that the wells are very deep. In some places they have to drill over a kilometre to get to water. 90% of the water is used in agriculture, of which 80% (!) is used to grow qat, which is a very thirsty plant. The average Yemeni family spends a quarter to half of their income on qat.
The Dutch government has been working in Yemen to improve their water management, for example telling them that it's not smart to spray in the morning, because a lot of the water will evaporate.

[Name Lips]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41689225/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/


Uprising in Libya spreads
Protesters have seized military bases, Gadhafi's son acknowledges, as death toll rises

TRIPOLI — Protesters have seized control of some military bases and tanks, the son of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi said in a televised address early Monday morning.

Appearing on Libyan state television, Seif al-Islam warned of civil war in the country that would burn its oil wealth.

He also acknowledged that the army made mistakes during protests because troops were not prepared to battle demonstrators.

Protests against the 40-plus-year reign of his dictator father spread Sunday to Tripoli, the capital, for the first time, as protesters in other cities counted the dead from clashes with troops over days of protest.

Crowds in the capital were throwing rocks at billboards of Gadhafi and troops were trying to subdue them with tear gas and gunfire.

A doctor told Al Jazeera that forces had fired on protesters in Tripoli, killing an unspecified number, and Al Jazeera reported residents saying they could hear gunfire in the city. Other sources told Al Jazeera that clashes between pro- and anti-Gadhafi sources in central Tripoli involved thousands of people.

A doctor in the eastern city of Benghazi told Reuters that at least 50 people were killed and 100 others seriously wounded in Benghazi Sunday afternoon and evening. There were unconfirmed claims that the opposition had taken control of the city, with Gadhafi's forces holed up in a walled compound.

"Today has been a real tragedy. ... Since 3 p.m. (1300 GMT) and up to 9:15 p.m., we received 50 dead, mostly from bullet wounds," Habib al-Obaidi, who heads the intensive care unit at the main Al-Jalae hospital, said by telephone. "There are 200 wounded; 100 of them are in very serious conditions."

A doctor earlier said 200 dead had arrived at the hospital in the unrest through Saturday.

Libyan forces fired machine guns at mourners marching in a funeral for anti-government protesters in Benghazi, a day after commandos and foreign mercenaries loyal to longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi pummeled demonstrators with assault rifles and other heavy weaponry.

The crackdown in oil-rich Libya is shaping up to be the most brutal repression of anti-government protests that began with uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt. The protests spread quickly around the region to Bahrain in the Gulf, impoverished Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula, the North African neighbors of Tunisia — Libya, Algeria, Morocco — and outside the Middle East to places including the East African nation of Djibouti and even China.

Libya's rebellion by those frustrated with Gadhafi's more than 40 years of authoritarian rule has spread to more than a half-dozen cities. Benghazi has been at the center of unrest.

But getting reliable information about the chaotic situation is difficult. Journalists cannot work freely. Information about the uprising has come through telephone interviews, along with videos and messages posted online, and through opposition activists in exile.

Two residents of Benghazi said members of a Libyan army unit said Sunday they had defected and "liberated" Libya's second city from troops supporting Gadhafi.

Al-Obaidi and lawyer Mohamed al-Mana told Reuters members of the "Thunderbolt" squad had arrived at the hospital with soldiers wounded in clashes with Gadhafi's personal guard.

"They are now saying that they have overpowered the Praetorian Guard and that they have joined the people's revolt," al-Mana said by telephone. It was not possible to independently verify the report.

Al Jazeera TV reported that Abdel Moneim al Honi, Libya's permanent representative to the Arab League, had resigned his post over treatment of protesters.

The head of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya threatened to cut off oil exports unless authorities stop what he called the "oppression of protesters," Al Jazeera quoted him as saying on Sunday.

Jamal Eddin Mohammed, a 53-year-old resident of Benghazi, said thousands marched Sunday toward the city's cemetery to bury at least a dozen protesters. They feared clashes with the government when they passed by Gadhafi's residential palace and the regime's local security headquarters.

"Everything is behind that (Gadhafi) compound; hidden behind wall after wall. The doors open and close and soldiers and tanks just come out, always as a surprise, and mostly after dark," he told The Associated Press by telephone.

A man shot in the leg Sunday said marchers were carrying coffins to a cemetery and were passing by the compound when security forces fired in the air and then opened up on the crowd.

The United States said Sunday it is "gravely concerned" by credible reports of hundreds of deaths and injuries during protests in Libya, and warned its citizens to delay travel to the country.

"Libyan officials have stated their commitment to protecting and safeguarding the right of peaceful protest," said Philip Crowley, assistant secretary of state, in a statement. "We call upon the Libyan government to uphold that commitment and hold accountable any security officer who does not act in accordance with that commitment."

The department said U.S. Embassy dependents were being encouraged to leave the country and U.S. citizens were urged to defer non-essential travel to Libya.

The latest violence in Benghazi followed the same pattern as the crackdown on Saturday, when witnesses said forces loyal to Gadhafi attacked mourners at a funeral for anti-government protesters. They were burying 35 marchers who were slain Friday by government forces.

Defiant mourners chanted: "The people demand the removal of the regime," which became a mantra for protesters in Egypt and Tunisia.

The U.S.-based Arbor Networks reported another Internet service outage in Libya just before midnight Saturday night. The company said online traffic ceased in Libya about 2 a.m. Saturday, was restored at reduced levels several hours later, only to be cut off again that night.

People in Libya also said they can no longer make international telephone calls on their land lines.

[Trainz]

For good or bad, these are interesting times.

May you live in them.

[Ancalagon]

The shit is really hitting the fan over there! The air force has allegedly been strafing (bombing?) the protesters, some pilots have taken their planes and fled the country, Libyan diplomats are quitting left and right, some people are calling for the army to kick Gaddafi out...

[Xavier Lang]

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110221-revolution-and-muslim-world?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110222&utm_content=readmore&elq=d668ea6f7ae44f9bbd036faa55baf083

"The situation remains fluid, and there are no broad certainties. It is a country-by-country matter now, with most regimes managing to stay in power to this point. There are three possibilities. One is that this is like 1848, a broad rising that will fail for lack of organization and coherence, but that will resonate for decades. The second is 1968, a revolution that overthrew no regime even temporarily and left some cultural remnants of minimal historical importance. The third is 1989, a revolution that overthrew the political order in an entire region, and created a new order in its place."

[Cat of Ulthar]

http://golemxiv-credo.blogspot.com/2011/02/food-democracy-and-markets.html

Not a bad assessment of what is happening where why.

[Aloysius]

Have a look on Ghadafi speech. This is comedy gold if you forget that he is ready to slaughter half the country (or more...) to rule it.

[Cat of Ulthar]

Have a look on Ghadafi speech. This is comedy gold if you forget that he is ready to slaughter half the country (or more...) to rule it.

Is that the one where he says democracy comes from chairs?

[Aloysius]

No, the one he is/was making right now. I read that even Al Jazeera stopped to retransmit it after one hour or so because it was such a crazy incoherent rambling.

[Janos]

No, the one he is/was making right now. I read that even Al Jazeera stopped to retransmit it after one hour or so because it was such a crazy incoherent rambling.

Gaddafi crazy and incoherent? Never!

[Varaj]

This is my new line of death!

[Name Lips]

Libya's army has sided with the protestors, as have several of the stronger outlying tribes Gaddafi needs to maintain control.

So I'm pretty sure he's out. Don't get as strong "democratic" vibes from Libya as I do from Egypt, though. But all I know is the bits I read in the news.

[Enk]

Take a look at the demographics - they change considerably as the dominoes continue to fall.

[doc]

So when will they start rioting in Toronto ???

[Ancalagon]

Libya's army has sided with the protestors, as have several of the stronger outlying tribes Gaddafi needs to maintain control.

So I'm pretty sure he's out. Don't get as strong "democratic" vibes from Libya as I do from Egypt, though. But all I know is the bits I read in the news.

Well the question now I think is if the country will plunge into civil war. I hear there are strong east-west tentions

So when will they start rioting in Toronto ???

Wisconsin my friend...

[Ancalagon]

raw footage of demonstrations and street battles in Libya

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/video/amateur-footage-of-libyan-street-fighting/article1918879/?from=1918500

[Name Lips]

Things are nowhere near bad enough in the US or most other 1st world nations for this kind of revolt. We get genuinely upset about lots of things, but compared to what people have endured in Libya we don't have any real problems.

Our recession would be considered a period of ridiculous prosperity to these people. There are places where the unemployment rate is over 50%, where most people are subsisting off what they can find rather than off what they can buy. And this is their whole life, not just a "downturn" they hope to ride out.

[Aloysius]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgP0Gro52c8&feature=player_embedded


Damn. A newly freed people is a beautiful thing to see. This is the kind of images I won't forget.

[cnath.rm]

I got a call to give a friend a ride from work yesterday, he grew up in Africa and doesn't think there is a chance that Libya will actually be able to throw out Gaddafi. He said that Gaddafi doesn't care about shooting his own people and with the amount of African nations that he all but owns, that he isn't going anywhere.

I found it an interesting viewpoint considering the differences between Libya and other countries, and how the media seems to be reporting things.

[Ancalagon]

Wikileaked cable on Lybia says 32 billions in US banks:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/25/3148558.htm?section=business

Libya has billions in US banks: WikiLeaks

Posted 3 hours 2 minutes ago

Libya holds billions of dollars in US bank accounts, according to a confidential US diplomatic cable, which casts light on the global span of the country's oil wealth.

According to a 2010 message from the US embassy in Tripoli, obtained by WikiLeaks, Libya's sovereign wealth fund holds $US32 billion in cash and "several American banks are each managing $US300-500 million".

The revelations were reportedly made by the fund's boss, Mohamed Layas, who said most of the $US32 billion was "in bank deposits that will give us good long-term returns".

As international anger grows over Moamar Gaddafi's brutal crackdown on protesters, some of those assets abroad could be transformed into targets for international sanctions, if tied to the regime.

While US officials have not specified what steps could be taken against Libya, Washington has recently frozen assets held by Iranian, Zimbabwean and Belorussian officials over rights abuses.

"We have a wide range of tools," said State Department spokesman Philip Crowley, noting financial sanctions were one option.

"There are actions that are being teed up within our government."

In a sign of how plugged into the US financial system Libya has become, Mr Layas said the country had lost money during the collapse of Lehman Brothers and were approached by now convicted swindlers Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford for investment.

Mr Layas added that the government-controlled fund's "primary investments are in London, in banking and residential and commercial real estate".

*end*

There was also a story about the British Government considering to seize assets on UK soil, but the story went poof

[The Winslow]

He said that Gaddafi doesn't care about shooting his own people and with the amount of African nations that he all but owns, that he isn't going anywhere.
Yeah, I'm not sure about the second point. Everybody hates Gaddafi, throughout his long reign he managed to make enemies everywhere. He doesn't have any local ally.

[Ancalagon]

some of those protesters' blood is on our hands:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gsFJWQJuWP2wOErfN_NWaCG41MAQ?docId=7bcdf11e5 4af477ea8f88355d3c963c2

the key part:

Britain sold Libya about 40 million pounds ($55 million) worth of military and paramilitary equipment in the year ending Sept. 30, 2010, according to Foreign Office statistics. Among the items: sniper rifles, bulletproof vehicles, crowd control ammunition, and tear gas.

"What did the Foreign Office think Colonel Gadhafi meant to do with sniper rifles and tear gas grenades — go mole hunting?" asked Britain's Guardian newspaper.

Although Britain's current government led by David Cameron has revoked dozens of export licenses to Libya in the wake of the Libyan violence, many say the very weapons and equipment Britain has sold to Libya are being used against the country's people.

Britain's elite Special Air Service, or SAS, also participated in recent training for Libyan soldiers in counterterrorism and surveillance. Robin Horsfall, a former SAS soldier, said at the time that the training was a mistake: "People will die as a result of this decision," he warned.

[The Winslow]

It's revolting how friendly our govs have been with the terrorist-king of Lybia. Munich Massacre? Lockerbie? Bulgarian nurses? Who cares, he's a crazy despot and therefore we love him.

[cnath.rm]

Yeah, I'm not sure about the second point. Everybody hates Gaddafi, throughout his long reign he managed to make enemies everywhere. He doesn't have any local ally.I haven't made a study of it, according to my friend he has bankrolled a lot of countries over the years and pretty much runs the african union. (apparently when he came to Mali his people pretty much shut down the phones/internet to the whole country while he was there so he controlled whatever news went in/out) I don't know that he (Gaddafi) has friends, I figure he may have the leverage over people/the cash to get enough mercs to pull his arse out of the fire. No clue how accurate his info is, I just figure he lived there and I didn't.

[Ancalagon]

It's revolting how friendly our govs have been with the terrorist-king of Lybia. Munich Massacre? Lockerbie? Bulgarian nurses? Who cares, he has oil and therefore we love him.
fixed it for you

[The Winslow]

That also means that now he's in a position of weakness, getting rid of him is very tempting.

[Ancalagon]

That also means that now he's in a position of weakness, getting rid of him is very tempting.

It's not looking well for him. Right now the best he can probably do is a Pyrrhic defeat.

[Schizm]

Next country to revolt? Wisconsin.

no, really, because when your law enforcement joins the protesters instead of following orders, you are fucked. FUCKED.

BREAKING: Wisconsin Police Have Joined Protest Inside State Capitol

Written by Jenn Breckenridge

Inside the Wisconsin State CapitolFrom inside the Wisconsin State Capitol, RAN ally Ryan Harvey reports:

“Hundreds of cops have just marched into the Wisconsin state capitol building to protest the anti-Union bill, to massive applause. They now join up to 600 people who are inside.”

Ryan reported on his Facebook page earlier today:

“Police have just announced to the crowds inside the occupied State Capitol of Wisconsin: ‘We have been ordered by the legislature to kick you all out at 4:00 today. But we know what’s right from wrong. We will not be kicking anyone out, in fact, we will be sleeping here with you!’ Unreal.”

Ryan HarveyYou can find more updates from Ryan Harvey on Twitter @ryanharveysongs and his blog Even If Your Voice Shakes.

UPDATE: This video says it all. It makes me proud of my neighbors. “Let me tell you Mr. Walker, this is not your house, this is all our house.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVE_rLjxnfU&feature=player_embedded



http://understory.ran.org/2011/02/25/breaking-wisconsin-police-have-joined-protest-inside-state-capitol/

[Trainz]

OK, that is amazing cool.

:)

[Ancalagon]

wow, just wow.

[Trainz]

Oh, and returning to Libya, Obama officially said to Gadhaffi GTFO...

"The president stated that when a leader's only means of staying in power is to use mass violence against his own people, he has lost the legitimacy to rule and needs to do what is right for his country by leaving now,"



http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/02/26/obama-qaddafi-needs-leave/

[cnath.rm]

Next country to revolt? Wisconsin.

no, really, because when your law enforcement joins the protesters instead of following orders, you are fucked. FUCKED.Somehow I have a feeling that Walker might be rethinking his choice of exempting the police from the cuts... (the police, fire, and state trooper unions having supported him in the race)

[Aloysius]

Somehow I have a feeling that Walker might be rethinking his choice of exempting the police from the cuts... (the police, fire, and state trooper unions having supported him in the race)

Only in dictatorships are the legal rights of workers abolished to punish them for not voting for the soon-to-be dictator. I said elsewhere that Walker is the prototype fascist politician, and every news I heard about this story reinforce this conviction.

[Andreas]

So, why is there no thread on fark about this?

[cnath.rm]

Only in dictatorships are the legal rights of workers abolished to punish them for not voting for the soon-to-be dictator. I said elsewhere that Walker is the prototype fascist politician, and every news I heard about this story reinforce this conviction.I don't think he was punishing the other unions for not-voting for him, but I think the other unions having supported him may have played a small role in his exempting them from his plan.

I have no issue with state workers chipping in for their insurance and pensions, however the way the gov decided to go about it is bullshit imho.

[Name Lips]

They agreed to all demands to lower salary and increase the percentage they pay for insurance and pensions. Every single point was conceded, they said they were willing to do whatever they could to help solve the budget crisis.

So long as they didn't also take away their voices.

Governor Walker hasn't met with union leaders once since taking office. He refuses any talks, any meetings, and any compromise.

The issue isn't balancing the budget anymore. It never really was. Walker belives it's wrong - fundamentally, morally wrong - for public sector employees to be unionized. So he things it's right to do whatever it takes to strip public unions of their power.

[Aloysius]

The issue isn't balancing the budget anymore. It never really was. Walker belives it's wrong - fundamentally, morally wrong - for employees to be unionized. So he things it's right to do whatever it takes to strip public unions of their power.
FIFY. And, if he is like its french conservative counterparts, he probably thinks that any public sector employee is an abomination anyway, except if he is a soldier or a cops.

[Ancalagon]

Krugman had a short post about pension, benefits and if public service employees are really that better off:

(the link has links to the studies in question)

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/the-contribution-scam/

The Contribution Scam

David Cay Johnston has a terrific piece up about the nonsense of comparing government workers to private-sector counterparts by claiming that the government pays for more of their benefits. As he says,

Out of every dollar that funds Wisconsin’ s pension and health insurance plans for state workers, 100 cents comes from the state workers.

How can that be? Because the “contributions” consist of money that employees chose to take as deferred wages – as pensions when they retire – rather than take immediately in cash. The same is true with the health care plan. If this were not so a serious crime would be taking place, the gift of public funds rather than payment for services.

Thus, state workers are not being asked to simply “contribute more” to Wisconsin’ s retirement system (or as the argument goes, “pay their fair share” of retirement costs as do employees in Wisconsin’ s private sector who still have pensions and health insurance). They are being asked to accept a cut in their salaries so that the state of Wisconsin can use the money to fill the hole left by tax cuts and reduced audits of corporations in Wisconsin.

The labor agreements show that the pension plan money is part of the total negotiated compensation. The key phrase, in those agreements I read (emphasis added), is: “The Employer shall contribute on behalf of the employee.” This shows that this is just divvying up the total compensation package, so much for cash wages, so much for paid vacations, so much for retirement, etc.

So the right question — the only question — is whether government workers are getting an overall good deal compared with private-sector workers. Why, then, are we hearing so much about the meaningless contribution comparison?

The answer is simple: it’s because doing the comparison right doesn’t yield the desired answer. The new report by the Times gets the same answer as other studies: low-paid government workers do a bit better than their private-sector counterparts, but others if anything do worse.

Luo and Cooper report this as a “mixed answer” — but in terms of the political debate, it’s a body blow to the union-bashers, whose whole position is that public-sector workers are welfare queens in Cadillacs. They need to show outrageous overpayment, not rough equivalence at best.

And so they turn to a meaningless comparison that, to the unwary, sounds as if it supports their case.

Yes, some public-sector workers are overpaid. So are some private-sector workers. Doesn’t anyone read Dilbert? But the whole idea that union excesses are at the core of state and local fiscal problems is false, and only deliberate obfuscation keeps that from being obvious.

[cnath.rm]

Something else that doesn't normally get counted in the math is job security, state workers have it to a larger degree many then others do. Many people would (given the option) accept lower wages if that level of job security came with it.

[Ancalagon]

Krugman is now saying there is a news blackout in the USA (of sort) on the story - is this true or is he flipping out?

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/that-iraq-feeling/

That Iraq Feeling

I don’t watch cable news, or actually any kind of TV news. But I gather that there’s a virtual blackout on the huge demonstrations in Wisconsin, except on Fox, which portrays them as thuggish and violent.

What that makes me think of is January-February 2003, when anyone watching cable news would have believed that only a few kooks were opposed to the imminent invasion of Iraq. It was quite spooky, realizing that hundreds of thousands of people could march through New York, and by tacit agreement be ignored by news networks whose headquarters were just a few blocks away.

And it’s even more spooky to see it happening all over again.

[Name Lips]

I've been following the updates on MSNBC every day. Don't see any evidence of a blackout.

[Hatter]

I've been following the updates on MSNBC every day. Don't see any evidence of a blackout.

cnn doesn't seem to be covering it on their site, but then they've always had wonky priorities on coverage.

[Name Lips]

Emerald is telling me that she heard... from where I don't know... that Wisconson had a surplus on its budget when Walker took office. Then the first thing he did was pass a huge bundle of corporate tax breaks, throwing the budget into the budget mess they're in now -- squandering the surplus and throwing them into tens of billions of dollars in deficit.

A fabricated budget crisis, so he could have an excuse to go after the unions.

Has anybody else heard this?

[The Winslow]

A fabricated budget crisis, so he could have an excuse to go after the unions.

After the unions, social programs, and everything else that isn't actively oppressing the lower classes. That's the right wing's modus operandi ever since the Reagan-Thatcher era.

[Hatter]

Emerald is telling me that she heard... from where I don't know... that Wisconson had a surplus on its budget when Walker took office. Then the first thing he did was pass a huge bundle of corporate tax breaks, throwing the budget into the budget mess they're in now -- squandering the surplus and throwing them into tens of billions of dollars in deficit.

A fabricated budget crisis, so he could have an excuse to go after the unions.

Has anybody else heard this?

It's untrue (http://politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2011/feb/18/rachel-maddow/rachel-maddow-says-wisconsin-track-have-budget-sur/) according to Politifact.

[Ancalagon]

The thing to keep in mind is that the cause of the hole in the budget isn't the unions, it's the financial crisis. Everything was more or less honky dory until that happened

[Brynja]

I get why you might throw a break to a business but the wealthy? I am just so disgusted.

[Name Lips]

Seen on facebook:

So a unioned state employee, a teabagger, and a CEO sit at a table. On the table is a plate with 12 cookies. The CEO takes 11 of them, turns to the teabagger, and says "Watch out for that union guy, I think he wants part of your cookie."

[Ancalagon]

Seen on facebook:

So a unioned state employee, a teabagger, and a CEO sit at a table. On the table is a plate with 12 cookies. The CEO takes 11 of them, turns to the teabagger, and says "Watch out for that union guy, I think he wants part of your cookie."

Brutal... but true

[Megamieuwsel]

On the original topic;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12794882

I think it stands to reason, Syria is currently next on the list to explode, possibly following Libya's scenario.

Will "we" intervene there as well, should the need arise?

[Aloysius]

Will "we" intervene there as well, should the need arise?

If the operation in Libya is a success, if the uprising in Syria is similar in strength, maybe... And maybe not : Israel, Iraq and Iran (or Russia) are near, so this is obviously more difficult.

The more I think about it, the more I do think Israel will be strongly opposed to any intervention (they need a dictatorial Syria to keep the Golan), and they will use their "veto" in Washington.

[Megamieuwsel]

My thoughts exactly...

[Harry]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42178405/ns/world_news-mideast/n_africa/

This amazes me as much as the PRI falling in Mexico:

DAMASCUS — Police fired live ammunition and tear gas Sunday at thousands of Syrians protesting in a tense southern city for a third consecutive day, killing one person and signaling that unrest in yet another Arab country is taking root, activists said.

The violence in Daraa, a city of about 300,000 near the border with Jordan, was fast becoming a major challenge for President Bashar Assad, who tried to contain the situation by freeing detainees and promising to fire officials responsible for the violence.

Protesters in Syria would face a tough time trying to pull off a serious uprising along the lines of those that toppled leaders in Egypt and Tunisia. Assad's Syria is a country that crushes political dissent, closely controls the media and routinely jails critics of the regime.

Despite the political repression and rights abuses, Assad remains popular among many in the Arab world, in particular, because he is seen as one of the few Arab leaders willing to stand up to Israel. It is also not clear how much support any uprising would have within the country. A few earlier attempts to organize protests through social networking sites fell flat.

The confrontations in Syria began Friday when security troops fired at protesters in the city and killed five people.

Mazen Darwish, a prominent Syrian writer and activist who is in contact with residents and witnesses in Daraa, said one person, Raed al-Ekrad, was killed Sunday and two others suffered serious gunshot wounds when police opened fire on demonstrators calling for political freedoms and shouting anti-government slogans.

He said more than 200 people suffered from tear gas inhalation and were treated at a nearby mosque that has been transformed into a field hospital.

A witness in Daraa told The Associated Press by telephone that protesters were angry about Friday's deaths and mass arrests that followed. They demanded officials involved in the violence be fired.

Other activists in the capital, Damascus, confirmed the reports and said protesters appeared to be particularly incensed at a delegation the president sent to offer condolences to the families of the dead.

Neither the activists nor the Daraa witnesses would allow their names to be used for fear of government retaliation. Syria keeps a tight lid on information, particularly when it comes to security issues.

Some reports said protesters set fire to government buildings in Daraa and tore down pictures of Assad, but that could not be immediately confirmed.

Syria's government appeared to try to calm the situation later. An official promised to free 70 people held after the deadly protests Friday as well as the teenagers whose detention after scrawling anti-government graffiti touched off the unrest.

The Syrian official said an investigative committee recommended firing several government and security officials in Daraa, accusing them of mishandling Friday's protests.

Syria's state-run news agency SANA said Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad and a Cabinet minister, Tamer al-Hajah, were in Daraa to offer condolences on behalf of Assad to the families of those killed.

It quoted Al-Hajah as saying that Assad ordered the adoption of necessary measures to hold all of those responsible for Friday's killings accountable.

The Damascus activists said thousands of people who took part in Sunday's protests called for an end to emergency laws that have been in place since the ruling Baath Party took power in 1963.

Syrian police sealed off Daraa after Friday's demonstrations, allowing residents to leave the city but not to enter.

The National Organization for Human Rights said authorities randomly arrested people who participated in Friday's protests in at least five cities, including the coastal town of Banyas, Homs and the capital.

Ammar Qurabi, who heads the rights group, said those arrested were charged with writing anti-government slogans.

A Syrian official acknowledged only two deaths in Friday's violence and said authorities would bring those responsible to trial. The official said that even if an investigation shows security officers were guilty, they will be put on trial "no matter how high their rank is."

The violence was the worst since 2004 when clashes that began in the northeastern city of Qamishli between Syrian Kurds and security forces left at least 25 people dead and some 100 injured.

[Ancalagon]

His father once crushed an uprising by killing 10-30 thousand people in a city that was under active revolt. This could be very, very bloody.

[Harry]

News from Sudan. To which my reaction was "The fuck is up with that?"

[Note: 57 militiamen killed in what was an attack by the militiamen on a fortified position. To me, that gives an idea of the size of the attacking force.]

Fifty-seven "militiamen," including several high-ranking officers loyal to militia leader Gabriel Tang, were killed when Tang's forces attacked the Sudan People's Liberation Army in Southern Sudan, officials said Sunday.

Tang's forces launched the attack at Kaldak on Saturday, the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) said in a statement issued on behalf of Gen. Malaak Ayuen of the South Sudan Army. The SPLA is the military wing of the movement that governs Southern Sudan.

The SPLA killed 57 of Tang's forces, including three major generals and a number of brigadier generals, according to the statement. In addition, one major general and other brigadier generals were captured, the statement said.

Tang himself "narrowly escaped" the fighting, according to the statement.

Officials said it was unclear why Tang's forces attacked the troops, but the SPLA said it believes he has been in contact with other rebel groups in the region.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/04/24/sudan.violence/index.html?eref=mrss_igoogle_world

I'm guess, just guessing, but I suppose Tang's force to be in the area of 400-600, judging from the number of dead. If anything, far far less. Maybe battalion size, by US measurement. A battalion is commanded by a colonel.

[Harry]

News from Azerbaijan... the part I placed in bold is heartrendingly poignant to me:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13136598

In the pictures I attached, the child is the child in question.*

In oil-rich Azerbaijan, opposition supporters inspired by revolutions in the Arab world are taking to the streets and calling for a change of government.

The authorities, however, will do everything it takes to hang on to power.

It is a peaceful Sunday afternoon in Baku's immaculately restored city centre. In a central square next to the ruling party's headquarters, hundreds of people stroll around the 19th Century fountain or chat with friends.

But all these people have come here for a reason.

The young men in jeans, trying to look unobtrusive as they smoke cigarettes, are about to launch a protest against alleged government corruption.

Meanwhile, the crackle of walkie-talkies from business-suit pockets blows the cover of plain-clothed security officers ready to pounce.

Just before the demonstration is due to start, dozens of police officers in riot uniforms troop in from all sides and quickly form a cordon around the square.

Suddenly a man shouts something. Instantly, he is lifted off the ground by four policemen. They carry him to a waiting van and throw him in.

A crowd of officers then surrounds a young woman who is holding hands with a little girl aged about six.

The child shouts out "freedom" and punches one tiny fist into the air. She is grabbed by police, starts to cry, and is pushed with the woman into a police car.

The woman then shouts out in Azeri and I ask a local reporter to translate for me. "We don't have money to buy medicine," is the answer.

"Don't think you'll be able to keep your government," the woman adds, turning to the policeman who has hold of her arm. "A 30-year-old government collapsed in Egypt."

In total 65 people were detained on Sunday and 40 of them face charges that could lead to prison sentences. All were arrested either on their way to the protest, or as soon as they shouted out anything criticising the government.

Rasul Jafarov, a lawyer with the human rights organisation "Institute for Reporters' Freedom and Safety", says the revolutions in the Arab world are now inspiring people here to take to the streets.

"For the past five years the situation was very bad when it comes to guaranteeing human rights and freedoms," he said.

"People just waited and waited and waited. But because of events in the Arab world, people here now understand that they should go and ask the government to meet their demands. Now people realise they have a real chance of changing something."

But the authorities have also been taking note of events in Egypt and Tunisia. They want to pre-empt unrest before it happens and have said no demonstrations will be tolerated in the city centre. They have stuck to their word.

So far, hundreds of people have been detained before or during three demonstrations since mid-March. Youth activists have also been arrested in their homes after trying to organise protests on Facebook, and are now in pre-trial detention.

Amnesty International defines seven of the detainees as prisoners of conscience, and has called for their immediate release.

Reactions like these are nothing new. In 2009 two youth activists were sent to prison for two years after they posted a satirical video on YouTube, sending up the government by showing a donkey giving a news conference.

But human right activists say that since the Arab revolutions, the government has started reacting even more aggressively to criticism.

When you walk around central Baku it is hard not to be impressed by the meticulously renovated 19th Century buildings and the innovative architecture springing up all over the city.

But although oil has brought strong economic growth, that wealth remains in the hands of the few. Leave the city, and many people don't even have electricity or running water.

The oil wealth has also pushed up prices, meaning that the cost of living here is now comparable to cities in Western Europe. But the average wage is less than $400 (£245) a month.

In an attempt to stave off unrest, the government has recently launched a high-profile anti-corruption campaign.

The West would certainly like to believe President Ilham Aliyev's claims of democratic freedom.

Azerbaijan has vast oil and gas reserves, and its business-friendly secular government is seen as an important bulwark against neighbouring Iran. Because of its location the country is also a key stopover for Western troops and supplies bound for Afghanistan.

According to parliamentarian Mubariz Gourbanli, a member of the leading party, the West has nothing to worry about.

"We are not an Arabic country, we are a European country," he said.

"We have democratic elections. But this square in the centre of the city just isn't a place for protests. They can protest but only in certain areas. That's the law and we have to stick to that."

However, these areas are in remote locations which protesters cannot get to.

Political analyst Arastun Orujlu disagrees that there is true democracy here. He says the new anti-corruption measures are cosmetic and show that the Azeri government feels threatened.

"The Azeri government understands that we have the same system here as they had in Tunisia or Egypt. It is completely the same - just imitations of rights, imitations of freedoms, imitations of free economy and imitations of a market economy. In fact it is a totally corrupt government."

That is something these protesters want to change. But they are in the minority.

President Aliyev's family has ruled with an iron grip since 1993.

The media is tightly controlled by the state and almost 80% of the population either never use the internet or do not know what it is.

So, given that most people in Azerbaijan are probably not aware that protests have even taken place, the Aliyev family could soon be looking at a third decade in power.

*With apologies to Ergeheilalt.

[Harry]

This is interesting:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13250309

Missing Iran leader Ahmadinejad under pressure from MPs

Powerful MPs in Iran have called for a closed debate on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's apparent boycott of his official duties.

The president has not been seen at his office for eight days, missing two cabinet meetings and cancelling a visit to the holy city of Qom.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, recently re-instated a cabinet minister he had pushed out.

Analysts believe an internal power struggle may be under way.

Parliament has tacitly threatened the president with impeachment, the BBC's Mohsen Asgari in Tehran reports.

Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi was forced to resign on 17 April but promptly re-instated by the supreme leader.

Nearly 300 MPs urged Mr Ahmadinejad, in a letter, to respect Ayatollah Khamenei's decision.

While the president has not been seen at government meetings, Mr Moslehi attended a cabinet meeting last Sunday, the Associated Press news agency reports.

One unnamed reformist politician told the BBC that a "game of chicken" had begun.

"I hope one side yields at the end - otherwise it will move the country toward unprecedented instability that will certainly suck the current Arab uprisings into the country," the politician added.

[Trainz]

The Arab world is indeed going through an extraordinary period of change. It will be extremely different when all things eventually settle down.

For good or ill.

[Ancalagon]

We can speculate, but I think at this point almost anything is possible - both good and bad.

[Aloysius]

This is interesting:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13250309

Missing Iran leader Ahmadinejad under pressure from MPs

A good thing I checked the thread before reposting this news :D

By the way, this reminds me of the old 2003 debate. There were peoples who thought the ME should be changed through war, and there were those who thought it should be changed with soft-power. As far as I know, the CIA has been expanding a few hundred millions dollars every years to promote democracy and activism in the Middle-east. Meanwhile, the USA have spent a few billions dollars in military aid (for Egypt mainly) and a few hundred billions dollars for the wars. Now, rank those three different actions by efficiency and decisiveness....

[Scutisorex Shrewlord]

I had no idea you were such a fan of the CIA.

[cnath.rm]

and with all of that cash/material we have been giving Egypt, a ton of people there want to ditch the peace with Israel. Maybe we should have given Egypt some experimental stuff so we could get it tested for free if they decide to ask for an arsekicking.

[Ancalagon]

I've always thought that with that idiotic axis of evil speech, Bush set back democracy in Iran by at least a decade. It lead to an instant hardening of their position, and discredited the reformists.

Why do you think talibans and others of their ilk want to ban music and TV and education and such? THEY FEAR OUR CULTURE. We have to keep the long game in view here, our biggest weapon *is* soft power.

[Aloysius]

Next country to revolt ? Spain.

http://utils.lainformacion.com/static/panoramica-acampada-sol.jpg

Against capitalism. Or rather, against the rotten version of the financial capitalism that pervades the world nowadays.

(their slogan : "yes we camp" :D )

[Hatter]

Next country to revolt ? Spain.

http://utils.lainformacion.com/static/panoramica-acampada-sol.jpg

Against capitalism. Or rather, against the rotten version of the financial capitalism that pervades the world nowadays.

(their slogan : "yes we camp" :D )

And yet the socialists lost big in the polls.

[Aloysius]

And yet the socialists lost big in the polls.

This is not a contradiction, as the European "socialist" parties are slightly more conservative, from an economic point of view, than Dwight Eisenhower.

[Harry]

I was listening to Rush Limbaugh the other day, trying to make myself more crazy than I already am, and he spent a good twenty minutes or so insisting that Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a French Socialist, was practically the second coming of Kennedy, that he is a tax and spend Democrat who wants to subvert all that is good and moral in the world, while stealing money from the rich to give to the poor, and that American Democrats are falling at his feet declaring him their idol.

[Hatter]

I was listening to Rush Limbaugh the other day, trying to make myself more crazy than I already am, and he spent a good twenty minutes or so insisting that Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a French Socialist, was practically the second coming of Kennedy, that he is a tax and spend Democrat who wants to subvert all that is good and moral in the world, while stealing money from the rich to give to the poor, and that American Democrats are falling at his feet declaring him their idol.

Then why is Ben Stein defending him (poorly)?

[The Winslow]

I was listening to Rush Limbaugh the other day, trying to make myself more crazy than I already am, and he spent a good twenty minutes or so insisting that Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a French Socialist, was practically the second coming of Kennedy, that he is a tax and spend Democrat who wants to subvert all that is good and moral in the world, while stealing money from the rich to give to the poor, and that American Democrats are falling at his feet declaring him their idol.

Dominic. Dominique is the feminine version of the name.

Are there actually anyone declaring their admiration for that man despite what he's been charged with?

Then why is Ben Stein defending him (poorly)?

Huh. Is he trying to have his career commit seppuku?

As far as I know, the only people who have a legitimate reason to miss the guy are the Greeks, because DSK's replacement at the IMF can only be even worse for them.

[Aloysius]

Dominic. Dominique is the feminine version of the name.


In English maybe. Not in French. :D


Are there actually anyone declaring their admiration for that man despite what he's been charged with?

Until a few weeks ago, he would have accused the democrats to be in love with Bin Laden.

[Cat of Ulthar]

In English maybe. Not in French. :D
Dude, the Winslow is French.:grey:

[Aloysius]

Dude, the Winslow is French.:grey:
I know that. :D

[Harry]

Dominic. Dominique is the feminine version of the name.

:befuddled:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominique_Strauss-Kahn

[Aloysius]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43277769/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

One more down ! Will Gaddafi or Assad be the next to fall ?

[Edena_of_Neith]

I still think The Winslow and Rush Limbaugh should have a debate.

I know Winslow would win that debate, hands down, on any subject (including the English Language, much less anything political.)

Rush wouldn't stand a chance.

Rush Limbaugh insists on calling the French names. He would be so throughly owned by The Winslow, he wouldn't even know all the ways in which he had been owned. He wouldn't even know what had happened.

I would so like to see that happen ...

[Aloysius]

I still think The Winslow and Rush Limbaugh should have a debate.

I know Winslow would win that debate, hands down, on any subject (including the English Language, much less anything political.)

Rush wouldn't stand a chance.

Rush Limbaugh insists on calling the French names. He would be so throughly owned by The Winslow, he wouldn't even know all the ways in which he had been owned. He wouldn't even know what had happened.

I would so like to see that happen ...
Writing and talking are not the same thing. That, and having a debate with Limbaugh is probably as pleasant as putting your head in the toilet after someone vomited in it.

[Edena_of_Neith]

Probably true.

But in a debate between Winslow and Rush, it would be Rush in the toilet.

[Ancalagon]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43277769/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

One more down ! Will Gaddafi or Assad be the next to fall ?

At this point, I'm having a hard time choosing :mad:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/06/03/f-vp-macdonald-syria-hamza-assad.html

[Aloysius]

Gadhafi seemso be losing.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44212588/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/#.TlBJc6iGfpc


TRIPOLI, Libya — Libyan rebels launched an assault early Sunday on the capital of Tripoli amid unconfirmed reports that leader Moammar Gadhafi had fled, NBC News reported.

"Zero hour has begun," a rebel commander told NBC News.

However, a government spokesman said Gadhafi remained in control.

Rebels were fighting in at least four areas of Tripoli, NBC News said.

Protesters demanding the departure of Gadhafi took to the capital streets, Reuters said. Heavy mortar fire and sustained gunfire grew intense, witnesses said.

White House and U.S. intelligence officials were monitoring rumors that Gadhafi had left with his two sons, Hannibal and Mutassim, ending his 41-year rule, NBC News reported.

Late last week, intelligence officials told NBC News that Gadhafi might seek exile in Tunisia.

White House officials said President Barack Obama "had been briefed on Libya and is getting regular updates as needed."

In Libya, rebels said they launched the Tripoli assault in coordination with NATO and with the uprising of rebels inside the capital.

"This was a pre-set plan," said Abdel Hafiz Ghoga, vice-chairman of the National Transition Council, based in the eastern Libyan city of Benghazi. "They've been preparing for a while. There's coordination with the rebels approaching from the east, west and south.''

Ghoga said NATO warplanes were launching raids to distract Gadhafi's forces.

"The next hours are crucial. Many of their (pro-Gadhafi) brigades and their commanders have fled.''

His claims could not be independently confirmed immediately.

Sustained gunfire and thuds were heard in the distance and residents of Tajoura, on Tripoli's eastern outskirts, where reported clashes were under way.

An eyewitness told Al Arabiya news agency that the suburb was in rebel hands and people were out dancing in the streets.

Free Libya Now television reported that rebel forces set up command and control and civil control structures.

It also claimed rebels were in control of the airport, but the government denied the report.

An unknown number of rebels were killed in clashes in the Tripoli suburb of Qadah and fighting was ongoing at Mitiga airbase, a rebel activist told Reuters.

In the eastern coastal city of Benghazi, residents took to the streets to celebrate the advance on Tripoli, Al Jazeera news agency reported.

However, Gadhafi in a taped audio recording played on state television, congratulated Libyans on the elimination of "the rats."

He said French President Nicolas Sarkozy "wants the Libyan oil." Rebels don't represent Libya, he said.

Earlier, government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim told state television: "All of Tripoli is safe and stable."

"I ensure Libyans that Gadhafi is your leader ... Tripoli is surrounded by thousands to defend it,'' he said. "Armed people sneaked into Tripoli but have been dealt with."

"We have arrested Algerians, Tunisians and Egyptians in Tripoli," Ibrahim said.

Ibrahim renewed a call to rebels to surrender, saying they would be forgiven even if "they have killed our relatives.''

Mobile telephone subscribers received a text message from the government urging them to "go out in the squares and streets to eliminate the armed agents," according to one resident who received the message on his phone.

NATO resumed its Tripoli attacks with heavy bombing runs after nightfall Saturday.

Multiple explosions rocked Tripoli on Saturday night and repeated anti-aircraft fire was seen streaking across the sky, a Reuters reporter in the city said.

Earlier, rebels expelled government forces from the strategic western city of Zawiyah on Saturday, a major victory for the opposition in their march on Tripoli.

The territory remaining under the Libyan ruler's control has been shrinking dramatically in the past three weeks, with opposition fighters advancing on the capital, a metropolis of 2 million people, from the west, south and east.

Zawiya, a coastal city just 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of Tripoli, is the biggest prize so far in the rebels' three-week-old offensive.

The rebel presence in Zawiyah cuts off Tripoli's main route to the outside world. Although Gadhafi's forces, determined to retake it, mounted a fierce counter-offensive Friday, the rebels were still in control Saturday and said they expected more fighting.

"Gadhafi will try to take back Zawiyah at any price. He will keep shelling the hospital," said a rebel fighter as he was preparing for midday prayers in the mosque of Bir Hawisa, a nearby village where many civilians are sheltering in safety.

"We will not let that happen. We will fight," he said.

I would really be surprised if Tripoli were to fall right now. I can imagine some area upraising against the regime, and resisting a few hours or days, maybe more with outside rebel and NATO help, but it would be a really nice surprise if the regime collapse in the next 48 hours... Maybe panic will help.

[Ancalagon]

The rebels have made big pushes, only to fall back in a panic. But they seem to be reaching deeper each time. I'm definitely getting a sense of progress the last few weeks that wasn't there before. I wonder what changed?

[Aloysius]

The rebels have made big pushes, only to fall back in a panic. But they seem to be reaching deeper each time. I'm definitely getting a sense of progress the last few weeks that wasn't there before. I wonder what changed?

Well... There greatest progress have been made from the mountains south-west of Tripoli, while there is still some kind of stalemate around Misrata and Brega. I guess the SW mountains threat was underestimated by Gadhafi, so he sent his worst troops there. Them being routed reinforced considerably the rebels momentum.
Moreover, I guess the area was better suited for guerilla warfare : mountains, populated areas hostile to Gadhafi. And then, there was the "infamous" french weapons drop in the area (and latter, the rebels were able to seize libyans weapons)... Oh my bad, we violated the UN resolution. Overtly. I'm not sure to be really comfortable with that. On one hand, it was probably the right thing to do, from a military and humanitarian point of view. On the other hand, it's not a nice precedent.

[Aloysius]

The main military base west of Tripoli (the one who belong to the Khamis brigade, in Maia) has been taken over by the rebels, who have seized huge amount of grad missiles (and they freed some prisoners, too).
Meanwhile, rebels uprising in Tripoli has been reinforced by sea, and the main airport is under attack.

It's accelerating. http://live.reuters.com/Event/Tripoli_Besieged

[Cat of Ulthar]

Looks like they got it.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/08/201182122425905430.html

[Harry]

Some of these scenes from the last day or so in Cairo look like something out of a movie or comic book:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45383062/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/

Check out all the pictures posted in the gallery there.