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View Full Version : Thoughts on taxes, the economy, recovery, etc.


Name Lips
10-21-2009, 02:35 PM
The deficit as a percentage of GDP has reached its highest level since the WWII era. We all know this is a bad thing - but the theory is that it was done to prevent a second Great Depression.

The logical thing then, once the economy stabilizes, would be to shift the focus onto reducing the deficit.

The most efficient way to do this would be to raise taxes and cut programs -- but it's the extensive programs that are fueling the recovery. Conservatives argue that tax cuts will fuel a recovery, but liberals say that they're just keeping an eye on their own pocketbooks.

It was massive government spending and tax hikes that finally propelled America out of the Great Depression, and I'm thinking we will be in store for some of that in the coming 2 years. Observe, if you will, the following graph (from here (http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php)):
http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates-graph.php

It occurs to me as interesting that the decades many consider to be the Golden Age of 20th century America - the 40s through 60s - saw the highest income tax rates the country has ever known - above 90% in the top brackets.

Just think about that for a bit. Think about it. 90% income tax on the wealthiest individuals - most of whom were still ridiculously wealthy just on their remaining 10%.

We've been there, and not only did it not destroy the country, we seemed to be doing just fine during that time!

I don't want to go all Edena with the paragraph breaks, but it boggles my mind.

It just boggles my mind.

Thinking about it, a much smaller tax increase - like to 40 or 50% in the wealthiest brackets - should be able to solve all our financial woes, in just a year or two. No deficit. No debt. Health care for all. Massive military spending to muscle through a firm victory against Al-Qaida. No more underfunded schools. No more Social Security worries.

How exactly is this a bad idea? What dire consequences would befall us if this was done? And after the debt and deficit were eliminated, the taxes could even be lowered a bit to compensate.

It seems to me more logical to raise taxes in the short term to get the money we need, instead of piling on debt. I know piling on debt makes me have to pay more in the long run when I do it. So shouldn't it be cheaper in the long run to run the country with real money instead? That is to say, TAX and spend. Don't skip the TAX part.

Enk
10-21-2009, 03:24 PM
...It was massive government spending and tax hikes that finally propelled America out of the Great Depression...

You lost me right about here.

Name Lips
10-21-2009, 06:05 PM
Ah. I'm one of those heretics who think the New Deal and the increased government involvment in the economy were important factors in the Depression ending. Reading the wikipedia article, it seems that opinion is divided on that issue.

There has always been debate among politicians and scholars as to whether New Deal policies lengthened and deepened the Depression. One small voluntary response survey from 85 PhD holding members of the Economic History Society, which the author stated may not be representative of all economic historians, showed that there were statistically different opinions between economic historians who taught or studied economic history and those that taught or studied economic theory. The former were in consensus that the New Deal did not lengthen and deepen the depression, while the latter were more evenly divided. [83]
From my point of view, the extreme taxes and the government's unprecidented efforts to create jobs and a safety net were really what pulled us out of it.

Enk
10-21-2009, 06:57 PM
I don't go so far as to think that the New Deal had a negative effect. I think it had no effect. I think increased production due to WWII was the magic bullet.

The Theocrat of Poon-Tang
10-22-2009, 08:41 AM
I don't go so far as to think that the New Deal had a negative effect. I think it had no effect. I think increased production due to WWII was the magic bullet.

Bingo.

Limper
10-22-2009, 09:31 AM
In order to end the last great depression they created an all new greatly expanded new industry... the military industrial complex. They tried to put that genie back in the bottle but pretty much failed.

Government spending in that new industry fixed the issue last time and unless they get around to actually doing things that get people working its going to fail this time.

Great benefits that can't be funded make little sense to me.

Also even when we had 90% that was still bracketted taxes so only a portion above and beyond was taxed at that rate.

Enk
10-22-2009, 10:43 AM
In order to end the last great depression they created an all new greatly expanded new industry... the military industrial complex. They tried to put that genie back in the bottle but pretty much failed.

Government spending in that new industry fixed the issue last time and unless they get around to actually doing things that get people working its going to fail this time.

Great benefits that can't be funded make little sense to me.

Also even when we had 90% that was still bracketted taxes so only a portion above and beyond was taxed at that rate.

I read this as "If the government wants to spend its way out of this depression, it better sink a shit ton of money in an industry that's labor intensive." The best bet might be to finally update our aging highway system and enforce in a very draconian way the new e-verify laws that check for undocumented workers.

Northcott
10-22-2009, 11:02 PM
More like that industry has to have a long-term prospect. Paying to have roads fixed/built was part of the New Deal, wasn't it?

Name Lips
10-22-2009, 11:37 PM
It's where the Interstate system came from, IIRC. We didn't have a real, national network of roads before. And massive electrification campaigns, bringing power to even small towns. It was huge.

The modern equivelent I guess would be a massive initiative to build modern power plants (even the old coal and nuclear tech can be upgraded for significantly better efficiency before we even get started with some of the newfangled green power), fiberoptic connections, and so forth.

tleilaxu
10-23-2009, 01:12 AM
I don't go so far as to think that the New Deal had a negative effect. I think it had no effect. I think increased production due to WWII was the magic bullet.

people believe whatever they want about this as far as it helps reinforce what they already think.

let's not be so blithe to think the answer is entirely clear. there are good arguments that it had a positive effect, there are good arguments it had no effect. if you are honest with yourself, your opinion is likely not based on the evidence, but was preconceived.

Enk
10-23-2009, 07:22 AM
people believe whatever they want about this as far as it helps reinforce what they already think.

let's not be so blithe to think the answer is entirely clear. there are good arguments that it had a positive effect, there are good arguments it had no effect. if you are honest with yourself, your opinion is likely not based on the evidence, but was preconceived.

I think enough evidence exists to show that the economy didn't right itself until the early 40s (assuming you use employment rates as the primary indicator). That means that it either took 10 years for the New Deal to work, Germany's rise to power also spearheaded the recovery of the world economy, or increased demand for light and heavy manufacturing was the reason behind recovery. The truth is (like most things) probably a blend of all three.