SHARK
08-25-2007, 09:59 PM
Greetings!
Here is a book review that I did of "The Long Emergency" by James Kunstler. Have you read the book? How did you like it? What do you think of:
(1) My review
(2) "The Long Emergency" By James Kunstler
Semper Fidelis,
SHARK
Book Review: The Long Emergency
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Book Review: The Long Emergency, by James Kunstler
By SHARK
The “Long Emergency” is a term describing a complex of diverse eventualities, dynamics, and trends resulting from a variety of economic and political factors and subsequent developing consequences affecting a massive and total transformation to modern society’s economic, political, cultural, and environmental fabric. James Kunstler’s book, The Long Emergency, describes the roots of this drastic transformation, and the possible ways in which this post-oil economy will change and affect society on every level, on a global scale, with a particular emphasis on its transformational effects upon the United States.
Modern industrial society is founded on oil, and continues to run on oil. With “Peak Oil” reached, oil supplies will continue to dwindle, and the loss of oil as an engine for the entire economy will unleash forces and dynamics of change that are sweeping in dimension, and apocalyptic in nature. The term “Peak Oil” describes the break point when half of all available oil resources have been depleted, and a continuing point of a process of “diminishing returns” has been reached in gaining, and developing remaining oil resources. Essentially, the input of required energy is greater than the units of energy gained at the end of the process. This salient reality spells the eventual end of an oil-based economy, and an automobile-centered way of life and culture.
Kunstler characterizes the crisis with the statement that “The Reality Check Is in the Mail.”[1] Kunstler explains that the United States is already involved with fighting to safeguard its access to world oil reserves by its invasion and involvement with Iraq. The spectre of other world powers, such as the European Union, Russia, and China, all requiring oil, and competing for such reserves, increases the potentials for warfare and continuous conflict over resources. Adding into this mix of energy competition the nations of Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, all dominated or threatened by fundamentalist Islamic organizations and movements, and the growing threat of a nuclear disaster escalates dramatically. Thus, right in the newspapers and on the internet, the “Reality Check Is in the Mail.” The years in the future will unfold with these stark realities continuing to exert an overwhelming force upon the global community, and the consequences of these conflicts will affect human culture and society on every level.
Kunstler describes the realities of the Long Emergency by explaining that “What is certain is that we are entering a new period of world history, the uncharted territory of a post-oil world. We will be in it long before the middle of the twenty-first century. Eventually, all the nations will have to contend with the problems of the Long Emergency: the end of industrial growth, falling standards of living, economic desperation, declining food production, and domestic political strife. A point will be reached when the great powers of the world no longer have the means to project their power any distance.”[2] The effects of these changes on humanity will be apocalyptic, and transformational, even as the old order is destroyed, and a new reality emerges. Kunstler maintains that “The Long Emergency is going to be a tremendous trauma for the human race.”[3]
What are the roots of this pervasive crisis? Kunstler discusses the Industrial Revolution, and the subsequent age of oil, and the changes in economy, and all of life. Warfare changed to meet the new capabilities of the combustion engine, and the supply of oil for tanks, ships, and aircraft. The advent of oil transformed society on every level, and the older, agricultural modes of life passed into obscurity. Kunstler describes the transitions in the early part of the 20th century, as automobiles gained dominance, cities were remade, and the industrial way of life became the dominant force in modern American society. Kunstler says, poetically, “The new industrial man rushed upward to seemingly godlike powers on wings of gasoline-powered technology. Modernism became a kind of secular religion. Machine aesthetics reigned. In politics, the Modernist machine ethos found an analogue in fascism, Nazism, and Soviet communism.”[4] It is astonishing to think of how a resource—oil—not only caused transformations in transportation, the way in which people and goods travel and move about—but also by the way in which cities are designed, and the way in which housing is developed, to accommodate the freeways and the entire machinery of an automobile-centered way of life. Not only that, but the industrial foundations buttressed and made possible by the energy of oil also has its effects on the very way that education is established and carried out on the citizens of the nation. The roots of mechanization and industrialization even reached into political ideology, and outlines and themes are clearly seen in the hierarchical, mechanistic attributes of organization, and the use of power itself in the political ideologies of Fascism, Nazism, and Soviet communism. The effects of these political ideologies have, in turn, affected millions and millions of lives over the course of the 20th century, both in the millions of dead killed and murdered through them, but also in the wreckage, slavery and dominion of millions of people that have lived on, suffering under the yoke of such modern, mechanized tyrannies.
The Long Emergency details many alternative forms of energy, all of which are unsuitable for one reason or another, and no long-term solution really exists. Kunstler relates that “Since the so-called “Alternative” energy sources described above are all in one way or another implausible on the long-term basis without the subsidy of oil, the only remaining alternative is nuclear energy.”[5] Kunstler, while holding out some qualified hope for nuclear energy, remains largely unconvinced. He says that “Despite the fact that the use of nuclear power has become rather routine, it is extremely problematic in the long term for reasons that go far beyond, but include, plain energy economics, and it is fraught with potentially great political tribulation.”[6] Kunstler explains that all of society will have to reorganize itself on a vastly more local basis, as all of urban, mechanized, oil-based society and civilization severely contracts, as energy resources vanish, the whole infrastructure and foundation becomes unstable, and entirely unable to sustain itself. This transformation will essentially plunge all of humanity, and especially the most advanced industrial nations of the global community, into a new “Dark Ages” with a uncertain future. Kunstler remarks that “The advanced nations could consciously commit themselves to dedicating some portion of the world’s remaining oil endowment to the production of wind turbines, solar arrays, and batteries—but don’t count on it happening. American leaders haven’t paid attention to energy issues since the oil crisis of the 1970s. It’s hard to believe that we are suddenly going to behave more intelligently.”[7] Though at times, Kunstler attempts to maintain hope, such sharp analysis really portrays the scope of the problem that faces the modern human community. There is no hope that the modern civilization will survive as it has in the past, nor will any remains even closely resemble it in any way. Human beings, and especially those within the machinery of government, are simply too entrenched, and too conceptually oblivious to seeing the scope of the problems presented by the Long Emergency, and even when they do manage to grasp the implications on an intellectual level, are too institutionally and politically enslaved to do anything about it, or respond in a united, effective manner.
The affects of an oil-based civilization, and the Industrial Age, have also contributed to an environmental degradation on a mass scale, that is also contributing to the problems presented in the Long Emergency. Kunstler explains that “There is near unanimity among the scientific community that global warming is happening. There is also a definite consensus emerging that the term “climate change” may be more accurate than “global warming” to describe what we are in for.”[8] For some analysts, usually those sponsored by oil corporations or other interested subsidiaries, there was disagreement and debate about “global warming” and to what extent, if any, human society has in contributing to such a crisis. Kunstler dismisses such, by asserting that the scientific community is in agreement concerning the environmental crisis, and maintains that the arguments about how much or to what extent human society has in affecting such changes is largely irrelevant. The salient point being, climate change is occurring, and will continue to impact and shape the world environment. Regardless of the precise level of human involvement, continuing haphazard and careless environmental policies certainly do not help the crisis, and at least in many localized studies, evidence suggests that there is some effect on the environment through human agency.
Kunstler discusses the sweeping changes that the Long Emergency will cause, and all of human society will be transformed. Everything, from education to food production and industry, will be more localized. Water and food resources will be at a premium. People living beyond such basic resources will either have to move to be near them, or die from subsequent resource wars or through starvation. Globalism, such as it is, is a development dependent upon the oil economy, and with the oil-based economy gone, globalism will be a thing of the past. Long-range transportation networks will deteriorate and be abandoned, and trans-oceanic and trans-continental trade will severely shrink, or cease altogether. Human society will be forced to entirely re-orientate itself on a small-scale, local axis, where resources are available, and local populations and commerce is sustainable. The world of the future will be a strange, hybrid mix of modern, and medieval, as some technologies and advancements may survive, and be maintained, while long-forgotten modes of life and essential skills will be revived and flourish. Horses and work animals will return to an essential place in not only working, and helping human society to survive, but also to enhance and develop transportation. Increasingly, and by stages, transportation will be provided by horses, bicycles, electrical trains, as well as by water navigation, using boats and barges along shorelines, rivers, lakes and canals. Human populations will be dispersed, and live in smaller communities and along entirely different social lines of organization—the tribe, the local community, and family will emerge as more important than ever, and the icon of the hyper-individualist and corporate “unit” will be eclipsed, and vanish.
While there are technocrats that believe in the endless salvation of technology, there seems to come a point when facing the realities of the Long Emergency that there is too much lead-time required, and too much social and political unity, that would have to come together to stave off disaster. Human beings are not that intelligent, and certainly wisdom and forethought is a rarity, especially when measured out against the short-term allure of profit and living large, and passing the buck of the hard decisions and making changes onto future generations, future governments, is so much easier. At every stage, the short-sighted, self-centered dynamic reigns, and eventually, the bill comes due. There is not enough time or political unity and genuine leadership, let alone the scientific and industrial time for development of viable solutions to avoid the impending and approaching apocalypse. The time of change will arrive faster than human society can mount a response to it. Thus, human society will be dragged, kicking and screaming, into a new “Dark Ages” where everything in life, society, and community will have to be rebuilt, and built anew, with new dynamics, new social relationships, and even a new spirituality.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] James Howard Kunstler, The Long Emergency, Grove Press, New York. 2005. 2
[2] Ibid 98
[3] Ibid 20
[4] Ibid 37
[5] Ibid 140
[6] Ibid 140
[7] Ibid 128
[8] Ibid 148
Here is a book review that I did of "The Long Emergency" by James Kunstler. Have you read the book? How did you like it? What do you think of:
(1) My review
(2) "The Long Emergency" By James Kunstler
Semper Fidelis,
SHARK
Book Review: The Long Emergency
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Book Review: The Long Emergency, by James Kunstler
By SHARK
The “Long Emergency” is a term describing a complex of diverse eventualities, dynamics, and trends resulting from a variety of economic and political factors and subsequent developing consequences affecting a massive and total transformation to modern society’s economic, political, cultural, and environmental fabric. James Kunstler’s book, The Long Emergency, describes the roots of this drastic transformation, and the possible ways in which this post-oil economy will change and affect society on every level, on a global scale, with a particular emphasis on its transformational effects upon the United States.
Modern industrial society is founded on oil, and continues to run on oil. With “Peak Oil” reached, oil supplies will continue to dwindle, and the loss of oil as an engine for the entire economy will unleash forces and dynamics of change that are sweeping in dimension, and apocalyptic in nature. The term “Peak Oil” describes the break point when half of all available oil resources have been depleted, and a continuing point of a process of “diminishing returns” has been reached in gaining, and developing remaining oil resources. Essentially, the input of required energy is greater than the units of energy gained at the end of the process. This salient reality spells the eventual end of an oil-based economy, and an automobile-centered way of life and culture.
Kunstler characterizes the crisis with the statement that “The Reality Check Is in the Mail.”[1] Kunstler explains that the United States is already involved with fighting to safeguard its access to world oil reserves by its invasion and involvement with Iraq. The spectre of other world powers, such as the European Union, Russia, and China, all requiring oil, and competing for such reserves, increases the potentials for warfare and continuous conflict over resources. Adding into this mix of energy competition the nations of Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia, all dominated or threatened by fundamentalist Islamic organizations and movements, and the growing threat of a nuclear disaster escalates dramatically. Thus, right in the newspapers and on the internet, the “Reality Check Is in the Mail.” The years in the future will unfold with these stark realities continuing to exert an overwhelming force upon the global community, and the consequences of these conflicts will affect human culture and society on every level.
Kunstler describes the realities of the Long Emergency by explaining that “What is certain is that we are entering a new period of world history, the uncharted territory of a post-oil world. We will be in it long before the middle of the twenty-first century. Eventually, all the nations will have to contend with the problems of the Long Emergency: the end of industrial growth, falling standards of living, economic desperation, declining food production, and domestic political strife. A point will be reached when the great powers of the world no longer have the means to project their power any distance.”[2] The effects of these changes on humanity will be apocalyptic, and transformational, even as the old order is destroyed, and a new reality emerges. Kunstler maintains that “The Long Emergency is going to be a tremendous trauma for the human race.”[3]
What are the roots of this pervasive crisis? Kunstler discusses the Industrial Revolution, and the subsequent age of oil, and the changes in economy, and all of life. Warfare changed to meet the new capabilities of the combustion engine, and the supply of oil for tanks, ships, and aircraft. The advent of oil transformed society on every level, and the older, agricultural modes of life passed into obscurity. Kunstler describes the transitions in the early part of the 20th century, as automobiles gained dominance, cities were remade, and the industrial way of life became the dominant force in modern American society. Kunstler says, poetically, “The new industrial man rushed upward to seemingly godlike powers on wings of gasoline-powered technology. Modernism became a kind of secular religion. Machine aesthetics reigned. In politics, the Modernist machine ethos found an analogue in fascism, Nazism, and Soviet communism.”[4] It is astonishing to think of how a resource—oil—not only caused transformations in transportation, the way in which people and goods travel and move about—but also by the way in which cities are designed, and the way in which housing is developed, to accommodate the freeways and the entire machinery of an automobile-centered way of life. Not only that, but the industrial foundations buttressed and made possible by the energy of oil also has its effects on the very way that education is established and carried out on the citizens of the nation. The roots of mechanization and industrialization even reached into political ideology, and outlines and themes are clearly seen in the hierarchical, mechanistic attributes of organization, and the use of power itself in the political ideologies of Fascism, Nazism, and Soviet communism. The effects of these political ideologies have, in turn, affected millions and millions of lives over the course of the 20th century, both in the millions of dead killed and murdered through them, but also in the wreckage, slavery and dominion of millions of people that have lived on, suffering under the yoke of such modern, mechanized tyrannies.
The Long Emergency details many alternative forms of energy, all of which are unsuitable for one reason or another, and no long-term solution really exists. Kunstler relates that “Since the so-called “Alternative” energy sources described above are all in one way or another implausible on the long-term basis without the subsidy of oil, the only remaining alternative is nuclear energy.”[5] Kunstler, while holding out some qualified hope for nuclear energy, remains largely unconvinced. He says that “Despite the fact that the use of nuclear power has become rather routine, it is extremely problematic in the long term for reasons that go far beyond, but include, plain energy economics, and it is fraught with potentially great political tribulation.”[6] Kunstler explains that all of society will have to reorganize itself on a vastly more local basis, as all of urban, mechanized, oil-based society and civilization severely contracts, as energy resources vanish, the whole infrastructure and foundation becomes unstable, and entirely unable to sustain itself. This transformation will essentially plunge all of humanity, and especially the most advanced industrial nations of the global community, into a new “Dark Ages” with a uncertain future. Kunstler remarks that “The advanced nations could consciously commit themselves to dedicating some portion of the world’s remaining oil endowment to the production of wind turbines, solar arrays, and batteries—but don’t count on it happening. American leaders haven’t paid attention to energy issues since the oil crisis of the 1970s. It’s hard to believe that we are suddenly going to behave more intelligently.”[7] Though at times, Kunstler attempts to maintain hope, such sharp analysis really portrays the scope of the problem that faces the modern human community. There is no hope that the modern civilization will survive as it has in the past, nor will any remains even closely resemble it in any way. Human beings, and especially those within the machinery of government, are simply too entrenched, and too conceptually oblivious to seeing the scope of the problems presented by the Long Emergency, and even when they do manage to grasp the implications on an intellectual level, are too institutionally and politically enslaved to do anything about it, or respond in a united, effective manner.
The affects of an oil-based civilization, and the Industrial Age, have also contributed to an environmental degradation on a mass scale, that is also contributing to the problems presented in the Long Emergency. Kunstler explains that “There is near unanimity among the scientific community that global warming is happening. There is also a definite consensus emerging that the term “climate change” may be more accurate than “global warming” to describe what we are in for.”[8] For some analysts, usually those sponsored by oil corporations or other interested subsidiaries, there was disagreement and debate about “global warming” and to what extent, if any, human society has in contributing to such a crisis. Kunstler dismisses such, by asserting that the scientific community is in agreement concerning the environmental crisis, and maintains that the arguments about how much or to what extent human society has in affecting such changes is largely irrelevant. The salient point being, climate change is occurring, and will continue to impact and shape the world environment. Regardless of the precise level of human involvement, continuing haphazard and careless environmental policies certainly do not help the crisis, and at least in many localized studies, evidence suggests that there is some effect on the environment through human agency.
Kunstler discusses the sweeping changes that the Long Emergency will cause, and all of human society will be transformed. Everything, from education to food production and industry, will be more localized. Water and food resources will be at a premium. People living beyond such basic resources will either have to move to be near them, or die from subsequent resource wars or through starvation. Globalism, such as it is, is a development dependent upon the oil economy, and with the oil-based economy gone, globalism will be a thing of the past. Long-range transportation networks will deteriorate and be abandoned, and trans-oceanic and trans-continental trade will severely shrink, or cease altogether. Human society will be forced to entirely re-orientate itself on a small-scale, local axis, where resources are available, and local populations and commerce is sustainable. The world of the future will be a strange, hybrid mix of modern, and medieval, as some technologies and advancements may survive, and be maintained, while long-forgotten modes of life and essential skills will be revived and flourish. Horses and work animals will return to an essential place in not only working, and helping human society to survive, but also to enhance and develop transportation. Increasingly, and by stages, transportation will be provided by horses, bicycles, electrical trains, as well as by water navigation, using boats and barges along shorelines, rivers, lakes and canals. Human populations will be dispersed, and live in smaller communities and along entirely different social lines of organization—the tribe, the local community, and family will emerge as more important than ever, and the icon of the hyper-individualist and corporate “unit” will be eclipsed, and vanish.
While there are technocrats that believe in the endless salvation of technology, there seems to come a point when facing the realities of the Long Emergency that there is too much lead-time required, and too much social and political unity, that would have to come together to stave off disaster. Human beings are not that intelligent, and certainly wisdom and forethought is a rarity, especially when measured out against the short-term allure of profit and living large, and passing the buck of the hard decisions and making changes onto future generations, future governments, is so much easier. At every stage, the short-sighted, self-centered dynamic reigns, and eventually, the bill comes due. There is not enough time or political unity and genuine leadership, let alone the scientific and industrial time for development of viable solutions to avoid the impending and approaching apocalypse. The time of change will arrive faster than human society can mount a response to it. Thus, human society will be dragged, kicking and screaming, into a new “Dark Ages” where everything in life, society, and community will have to be rebuilt, and built anew, with new dynamics, new social relationships, and even a new spirituality.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] James Howard Kunstler, The Long Emergency, Grove Press, New York. 2005. 2
[2] Ibid 98
[3] Ibid 20
[4] Ibid 37
[5] Ibid 140
[6] Ibid 140
[7] Ibid 128
[8] Ibid 148