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Harry
09-11-2008, 08:26 PM
http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2008/09/11/the-death-of-opec.aspx

Saudi Arabia walked out on OPEC yesterday, saying it would not honor the cartel's production cut. It was tired of rants from Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and the well-dressed oil minister from Iran.

As the world's largest crude exporter, the kingdom in the desert took its ball and went home.

As the Saudis left the building, the message was shockingly clear. “Saudi Arabia will meet the market’s demand,” a senior OPEC delegate told the New York Times. “We will see what the market requires and we will not leave a customer without oil."

OPEC will still have lavish meetings and a nifty headquarters in Vienna, Austria, but the Saudis have made certain the the organization has lost its teeth. Even though the cartel argued that the sudden drop in crude was due to "oversupply", OPEC's most powerful member knows that the drop may only be temporary. Cold weather later this year could put pressure on prices. So could a decision by Russia that it wants to "punish" the U.S. and European Union for a time. That political battle is only at its beginning.

The downward pressure on oil got a second hand. Brazil has confirmed another huge oil deposit to add to one it discovered off-shore earlier this year. The first field uncovered by Petrobras has the promise of being one of the largest in the world. The breadth of that deposit has now expanded.

OPEC needs the Saudis to have any credibility in terms of pricing, supply, and the ongoing success of its bully pulpit. By failing to keep its most critical member, it forfeits its leverage.

OPEC has made no announcement about any possibility of dissolving, but the process is already over.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7423008.stm

Indonesia has said it will quit the oil producers' body Opec as it is no longer a net exporter of the commodity.

Energy minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro confirmed the move, which had been anticipated for some time.

Opec's sole member in South East Asia, Indonesia became a net importer of oil in recent times after production fell and it struggled to find new reserves.

Soaring oil prices have pushed up inflation in Indonesia and a recent cut to fuel subsidies prompted protests.

Production stagnates

Indonesia will leave the 13-member organisation when its membership expires later this year.

Opec has yet to comment on the development.

The BBC's Lucy Williamson in Jakarta says the decision is not unexpected, since Indonesia's production - largely concentrated in northern Sumatra - has stagnated and it has precious few sources of proven new reserves.

But she adds that ministers are leaving the door open for it to return, should any future discoveries of oil transform the state of its industry.

Some analysts said the move may have been triggered by unhappiness about Opec's reluctance to increase output in the face of the recent price surge, which took the cost of a barrel of oil above $135....

PWD
09-12-2008, 12:19 AM
Interesting moves. The Saudis appear to be making every effort to show themselves as nice-nice to the americans with moves like this... I still don't think they feel comfortable with their place in the world after 9/11.

AZRogue
09-12-2008, 12:38 AM
Interesting moves. The Saudis appear to be making every effort to show themselves as nice-nice to the americans with moves like this... I still don't think they feel comfortable with their place in the world after 9/11.

I'm cautiously optimistic. It may just be mostly a move to help improve their image, but I'll take it. Even give them the benefit of the doubt. :)

Ergeheilalt
09-12-2008, 02:09 AM
It is also election time...

Hatter
09-12-2008, 09:35 AM
It is also election time...

This is the one. OPEC traditionally increases oil production just before a US election. They've done so for years.

Dr_Avalanche
09-12-2008, 11:23 AM
...why?

Ink Bleeder
09-12-2008, 11:33 AM
Once again, my messageboard gives me better news coverage than the networks. I never saw this covered on the news this morning. :mad:

Hatter
09-12-2008, 12:49 PM
...why?

If oil prices are high before an election it could cause a candidate to campaign more successfully on energy reform which would be contrary to Saudi interests.

Dr_Avalanche
09-12-2008, 03:17 PM
Ah. Logic, can't beat it. Thanks.