How high (or not) will gasoline go in the US?

[Edena_of_Neith]

How high (or not) will gasoline go in the United States by this autumn, in your opinion?

[Singularity]

Where's the "How the fuck should I know?" option?

Seriously, I've heard predictions that prices are peaking right now and then we can expect the price of oil to drop to $86 per barrel by the end of the year and not get back up to current levels until somewhere around 2015. I'm hoping that this pans out because that shit is so expensive that we can't even afford to drive to the other side of the state to see friends right now.

[Freedom Canadian]

If we're talking about this autumn, then that's after the summer peak has dropped down. Assuming no Katrina-like disaster, prices should be about where they are now, I'd say.

Prices at the end of july / beginning of august should be quite high, though. :(

[Name Lips]

I want it to get absurdly high in order to fuel innovation and production of alternative technologies. It's going to hurt getting off the gasoline teat, but we're going to have to do it eventually so why not now?

Even with gas at a mere $4/gallon there's been a shift towards alternative engines. I heard about a car coming on the market next year - it's a hybrid, but also plugs in. It can run 40 miles off the electicity from one charge before the gasoline motor even turns on. For most people that means their daily commute will be gasoline free with this car.

Seriously, I want the gas prices to rise steadily and not go back down. It'll be hellish, but we'll get through it and be a better civilization in the end.

[Varaj]

Seriously, I want the gas prices to rise steadily and not go back down. It'll be hellish, but we'll get through it and be a better civilization in the end.

Word

[Edena_of_Neith]

It's a pretty much Open Secret that the Big Three could build cars that got 100 miles per gallon, tomorrow.
They have simply taken all their technological know how, and locked it away. And when others, like Tucker and DeLorean, challenged them, they put them down.
The victim? The American consumer. (And, the European consumer, the Asian consumer, the Australian consumer ...)

Now, gasoline is at $4, it is continuing to rise, and the Big Three are basically still doing nothing.
Our primary source of Hybrid Vehicles are Japanese imports. Toyota and Honda, in particular, seem interested in mass producing these more fuel efficient cars.

And the Big Three? They are going out of business. Shutting down operations in the US and Canada, basically.
Their thinking is beyond me. Intelligent, is not the appropriate word to describe it. Nor do the words reasonable or even sane apply.

In any case, I believe gasoline is heading for $8 per gallon. If it does, there will be a post-World War II style rush on Hybrid Cars.
Is that a good thing? Yes.
Should the Big Three have allowed that 100 mpg car? Yes.
Are we consumers screwed on all sides? Yes.

Let's just hope they build really fine hybrids that get that 100 mpg (or better), or even better yet those electric cars that you can plug in.
Or best of all, hydrogen fuel cell cars that use no gasoline at all, and the only pollutant they create is water vapor.

[Varaj]

It's a pretty much Open Secret that the Big Three could build cars that got 100 miles per gallon, tomorrow.

That open secret is much like the moon landing was a hoax or that fluoride is a communist plot.

[Edena_of_Neith]

LOL

'The commies are plotting to steal our precious bodily fluids!' :D

However, Tucker did try to build a better automobile.
They put an end to that real quick. (Can't upset The System, you know ...)

[Varaj]

LOL

'The commies are plotting to steal our precious bodily fluids!' :D

However, Tucker did try to build a better automobile.
They put an end to that real quick. (Can't upset The System, you know ...)

Even the Tucker sedan is not a simple case of the Big Three crushing competitors. Even that is not a 100 mpg vehicle. Every feature the Tucker sedan was supposed to have very quickly made it into other cars. Nothing was hidden away.

[Lmik]

I think that prices are peaking now (certainly they are really hurting in New Zealand now where the price is US$6.21 per gallon (NZ$2.15 per litre)) and are forcing people to cut back on how much petrol they are using. I have been taking the train a lot more recently and even been using to visit people in different towns. Fortunately my three year old loves the train and thinks we should take it everywhere. As more people reduce their usage prices will begin to drop (or at least hold) as petrol companies learn the new price that they can charge without us lowering our usage.

[nerfherder]

In any case, I believe gasoline is heading for $8 per gallon. If it does, there will be a post-World War II style rush on Hybrid Cars.

Can you explain why there isn't that rush in the UK, where gas is about $8.50 per gallon?

[Lmik]

Yeah there is no hybrid rush in the UK just Lorry drivers blocking your motorways in protest against the fuel taxes. The first thing that seems to be happening is that people are deserting their SUV's (thank Christ - why did the fools buy them in the first place) and buying more compacts.

[Varaj]

Can you explain why there isn't that rush in the UK, where gas is about $8.50 per gallon?

Because in Europe 100 miles is a long ways.

[nerfherder]

Because in Europe 100 miles is a long ways.
Actually, average annual mileage in the UK is not hugely less than in the US - I remember finding that statistic a couple of years ago and it was something like 10,000 c.f. 12,000. Something like 20% less distance in the UK, but gas is more than 50% less in the US.

[Limper]

I'm expecting $500 a barrel oil in the next few years so I voted for 15-20.

[nerfherder]

Yeah there is no hybrid rush in the UK just Lorry drivers blocking your motorways in protest against the fuel taxes. The first thing that seems to be happening is that people are deserting their SUV's (thank Christ - why did the fools buy them in the first place) and buying more compacts.
Lorry drivers are protesting, like they did in 2000 when fuel was 25% cheaper, because it's driving (no pun intended) them out of business. Still not seeing many hybrids on the road though. Actually, I did see a Prius yesterday. It was being driven as uneconomically as possible (it overtook me at about 80, then proceeded to tailgate the car in front of it in traffic, having to brake often, then sped again in a 30 zone).

[Varaj]

Actually, average annual mileage in the UK is not hugely less than in the US - I remember finding that statistic a couple of years ago and it was something like 10,000 c.f. 12,000. Something like 20% less distance in the UK, but gas is more than 50% less in the US.

You can't look at just consumer traffic. Almost everything is shipped by truck in the US and the US is huge compared to Britain. Hell we have some 31 states bigger than Britain. Heck we almost have lakes bigger than England.

http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/statistics/gasoline_consumption_country.php*

*not source of picture, different information

[nerfherder]

You can't look at just consumer traffic.
Yes I can - I was replying directly to a statement about Hybrid Cars. :)

Nice picture by the way - I hadn't realised how much more gasoline in total the US used. The price to fill up a Honda Civic is out of date though - over $100 for mine now. :(

[Varaj]

Yes I can - I was replying directly to a statement about Hybrid Cars. :)

It does matter as a whole because as the price of gas goes up the price of everything goes up. When the price of everything goes up and you know gasoline is the reason saving money on gasoline becomes an easy choice.

I see dozens of hybrid cars a day, it is already a greatly increased market and it will only go up. Hell I work with people that commute 70 miles a day and I'm close to work and it is still a 20 miles both ways.

[Freedom Canadian]

You can't look at just consumer traffic. Almost everything is shipped by truck in the US and the US is huge compared to Britain. Hell we have some 31 states bigger than Britain. Heck we almost have lakes bigger than England.


The distance I'm driving to Gen Con is the equivalent of driving from the southern tip of Britain to its northern tip and back.

And then I have to come back. :)

In fact, in european terms, my Gen Con trip last year (including going to and fro on site and everything) was almost the equivalent of driving from London to Moscow and back. :)

[Name Lips]

I predict a reversal of the suburbia phenominon. People will move back into the city centers in order to cut gas expenses. Lets face it, people could only afford to have urban sprawl and to live in Suburbia because gas was cheap. If gas becomes prohibitively expensive... there could easily be no option for many people but to move back.

[Freedom Canadian]

I think you're right, eek.

In fact, the condo I'm buying is located right next to a subway station. Currently, I drive to work, but after I move, I'll rarely touch my car at all. That was not really a factor when I decided which place to buy, but the more I think about it, the more I think that was the right thing to do.

[nerfherder]

It does matter as a whole because as the price of gas goes up the price of everything goes up. When the price of everything goes up and you know gasoline is the reason saving money on gasoline becomes an easy choice.
Well the price of everything is going up here.

I see dozens of hybrid cars a day, it is already a greatly increased market and it will only go up. Hell I work with people that commute 70 miles a day and I'm close to work and it is still a 20 miles both ways.
I guess people are reacting differently in the US and UK. Maybe because cars here tend to be smaller and more economical there is less to be gained shifting to hybrid (in fact some cars here do better mileage than hybrids).

As far as shipping distances go - don't forget that a lot of stuff gets trucked all round Europe (although still not as much as the US, according to that graph).

It's interesting to get the American viewpoint. Here the visible effort seems to be in making normal cars more efficient (see VW and BMW especially), rather than pushing hybrids.

[Edena_of_Neith]

Ok, I fear I must inflict a horror on you: The Hybrid SUV.

(Yes, one exists. It is the Chevy Tahoe Hybrid. It gets 20 to 25 mpg.)

[nerfherder]

The distance I'm driving to Gen Con is the equivalent of driving from the southern tip of Britain to its northern tip and back.

And then I have to come back. :)

In fact, in european terms, my Gen Con trip last year (including going to and fro on site and everything) was almost the equivalent of driving from London to Moscow and back. :)
I've driven NYC to Tampa in 22 hours, swapping over with another driver. I've also done a lot of driving in the US and Canada on vacation. I do have some idea how vast America is ;)

[nerfherder]

Ok, I fear I must inflict a horror on you: The Hybrid SUV.

(Yes, one exists. It is the Chevy Tahoe Hybrid. It gets 20 to 25 mpg.)

And the Lexus RX400h SUV hybrid. Popular in London with TV crews as they can lug all their equipment around and avoid the Congestion Charge for central London.

268BHP, 0-60 in 7.6 sec, 34.9MPG combined cycle.

[Limper]

I predict a reversal of the suburbia phenominon. People will move back into the city centers in order to cut gas expenses. Lets face it, people could only afford to have urban sprawl and to live in Suburbia because gas was cheap. If gas becomes prohibitively expensive... there could easily be no option for many people but to move back.

The big stopping point I see to that is they will have to sell their existing home which no one will be buying for the reasons you state.

New buyers however will be able to do it with no problems.

Of course the McMansions in the burbs will drop in value to a point that folks may buy them anyway at which point we are back to square one.

I hope you are right though.

[Varaj]

It's interesting to get the American viewpoint. Here the visible effort seems to be in making normal cars more efficient (see VW and BMW especially), rather than pushing hybrids.

Keep in mind the tech factor. Americans tend to love new tech.

[nerfherder]

Keep in mind the tech factor. Americans tend to love new tech.
Good point - nothing better than the new shiny :D

Are American car manufacturers pushing new tech? We don't tend to get many American cars here, so I only hear about Japanese hybrids.

[Space Cadet B^3]

It is highly unlikely that I will ever be able to afford a new car, so therefore, will be unable to ever own a highly efficient vehicle with new tech.

[nerfherder]

I guess people are reacting differently in the US and UK. Maybe because cars here tend to be smaller and more economical there is less to be gained shifting to hybrid (in fact some cars here do better mileage than hybrids).
I did a little research, and found the top 10 cars sold in the UK for 2007.

http://cars.uk.msn.com/News/Top_ten_article.aspx?cp-documentid=7319152

10th: BMW 3 Series (295,312, +2%)
9th: Volkswagen Passat (300,566, -9.4%)
8th: Ford Fiesta (300,566, +0.6%)
7th: Fiat Punto (377,989, -5.9%)
6th: Renault Clio (382,041, -11.5%)
5th: Opel/Vauxhall Astra (402,044, -7.9%)
4th: Opel/Vauxhall Corsa (402,173, +41.7%)
3rd: Ford Focus (406,557, -7.5%)
2nd: Volkswagen Golf (435,055, +4.5%)
1st: Peugeot 207 (437,505, +105.5%)

Other than the BMW and VW Passat, they are all Compacts or Sub-compacts.

A mid-range Peugeot 207 does 33mpg (urban), 54mpg (highway), 44mpg (combined). For the diesel model, that's 49/74/62. That compares to the Prius with 56/67/66.

That probably explains why there hasn't been a huge swing to hybrids in the UK - the cost of changing cars (not to mention the cost of hybrids) far outweighs the (sometimes very small) gains in fuel economy.

[Varaj]

Good point - nothing better than the new shiny :D

Are American car manufacturers pushing new tech? We don't tend to get many American cars here, so I only hear about Japanese hybrids.

Isn't much difference between American and Japanese manufacturers. I think most American's are ignoring the difference now days. For where the work was done and who is making money on it the work it isn't different.
But both Japanese and American car makers are hyping hybrids like wild. Even those that don't have one yet advertise what they will have some day.

[Edena_of_Neith]

Let me be both a pessimist and an optimist here.

I believe that, over the next 5 years, gasoline is going to rise to $60 per gallon.

However, I also believe that plug-in hybrids will become available. With these cars, you'll be able to drive for 150 miles using no gasoline at all, just the electric charge from your house current.
When you're done with the trip, you just plug the car back in. Thus, unless you drive more than 150 miles between plug-ins, you'll use no gasoline at all.
After the 150 mile mark, you'll still get over 100 mpg, average. The Japanese will find the way. If they can produce a car that obtains 70 mpg now (the Prius) they'll find the way. (And maybe, they'll find a way to store 200, 300, 400, or 500 miles in the battery, before you need to revert to gasoline, too. And after 200 miles - or 500 miles - I can plug my car in at the Complimentary Motel Plug-In, at very reasonable rates.)

So, I'm living in Far Suburbia and it's 40 miles one way to work, and gasoline is $60 per gallon? No problem! :)

[Space Cadet B^3]

But who can afford to buy a hybrid?

[Edena_of_Neith]

LOL.

You know the country that sells just about everything Below Cost? (they ship it to the other side of the Earth, and somehow it's still only 50 cents?)

Said country has found a way around NAFTA, so they can export their cars directly to the United States without paying tariffs.

I'm sure said country will sell cheap hybrids and plug-in hybrids. They themselves have stated they'll have cars out for under $10,000, en mass.

(Take a wild guess as to the name of said country ...)

There's your answer.

[Varaj]

But who can afford to buy a hybrid?

The same people that can afford a new car.

[Name Lips]

But who can afford to buy a hybrid?

They're pretty expensive, but price will only go down as production and demand increase.

Production and demand must increase. It is essential if we are going to break out of oil dependency. And they must increase despite the fact that, as a young technology, hybrid cars are currently fairly expensive and out of the reach of the regular consumer.

[Space Cadet B^3]

Right, and I'm willing to bet a full 4th of the U.S. automobile owning population aren't in that position.

I mean, I'm all for it, but it's not going to solve the problem of the poor and affording gas.

[Edena_of_Neith]

(chuckles grimly)

They had better find a way.

Because I'm serious about gasoline going to $60 per gallon. If I'm right and it does, and they don't create an affordable, fuel efficient vehicle, can we say Great Depression? (Yes, that includes Europe ... and the Far East, and Australia, and India, and Everywhere Else.)

[Hatter]

(chuckles grimly)

They had better find a way.

Because I'm serious about gasoline going to $60 per gallon. If I'm right and it does, and they don't create an affordable, fuel efficient vehicle, can we say Great Depression? (Yes, that includes Europe ... and the Far East, and Australia, and India, and Everywhere Else.)

I believe the oil producers will do everything they can to keep that from happening. A global depression will hurt their profits and potentially drive nations to alternative energy sources, which they want to prevent.

[Edena_of_Neith]

Well, there you are, then.
And look at that other thread: the Saudi Oil Plan, and look at the charts.

Russia, rapidly growing, becomes the world's biggest oil producer and the world's biggest oil exporter (the Saudis go along as junior partners.)
China becomes the world's biggest producer of cars - they are already the world's biggest producer of Everything Else - and they sell everything to everyone.

Maybe Russia and China will divide the country between them? (And the Saudis get Canada, as a consolation prize?)

EDIT: They won't get Quebec. United Europe will claim Quebec. And Brazil will claim Mexico. lolol ...

[Xavier Lang]

But who can afford to buy a hybrid?

If you can afford a new car, you can afford a new hybrid.
If you can only afford used cars, you don't have to wait very long.
A significant portion of the population buys a new car every 2-4 years no matter what. Hybrids are reaching your used car lots these days and more and more will as time goes on and a larger number of hybrids reach the 2+ year mark and will be traded in or sold by some.

If neither of those work, try and find a car that is devaluing faster because of the hybrids to try and save gas money on the sticker price.

[Space Cadet B^3]

If you can afford a new car, you can afford a new hybrid.
If you can only afford used cars, you don't have to wait very long.
A significant portion of the population buys a new car every 2-4 years no matter what. Hybrids are reaching your used car lots these days and more and more will as time goes on and a larger number of hybrids reach the 2+ year mark and will be traded in or sold by some.

If neither of those work, try and find a car that is devaluing faster because of the hybrids to try and save gas money on the sticker price.
I see what you're saying, but I don't know how long I'll have to wait until they're in the $1000 range which is where I buy my vehicles. Since I don't have credit, making payments is not an option. I'm just saying that I'm not the only consumer of this type.

[Name Lips]

I see what you're saying, but I don't know how long I'll have to wait until they're in the $1000 range which is where I buy my vehicles. Since I don't have credit, making payments is not an option. I'm just saying that I'm not the only consumer of this type.

Chin up, dude. You're not going to be impoverished your whole life. Think of the future!

I personally guarantee you that in 10 years you'll be driving a hybrid, along with most everybody else.

And don't you dare reply to this by getting all cynical and pessimistic on my ass. :tongue:

[Freedom Canadian]

I personally guarantee you that in 10 years you'll be driving a hybrid, along with most everybody else.


Oh geez, I certainly hope that we've gone beyond hybrids in 10 years. :boggle:

[Name Lips]

Oh geez, I certainly hope that we've gone beyond hybrids in 10 years. :boggle:

The hybrids were the first alternative energy cars to reach the market at a price where regular people could afford them. I'm making an assumption that they'll also be the first to get cheaper, more plentiful, and available on used-car market. In 10 years, I'm expecting hydrogen fuel cell cars to have begun to hit the point that hybrids are at right now - creeping into the high end of the market.

[Lmik]

Well Triple B it looks like new cars are getting into your price range and not thanks to the evil russians, saudis, chinese or americans. The Indians (you know that democracy where all of America's jobs are going to) are now making the Tata Nano which will sell for about $2500 new and is probably the real future not hybrids.

www.tatanano.com

[FeatsofClay]

Chin up, dude. You're not going to be impoverished your whole life. Think of the future!



Actually, statistically he should still be impoverished.

I am earning 75 cents an hours more than I was 14 years ago. This one top of heavy socialization outside my economic circle, networking, and education.

The poor tend to stay poor.

[Edena_of_Neith]

Only 13 votes. Far more posts than votes.
Everyone is very unsure on this one, obviously.

[Edena_of_Neith]

(regards the current gasoline prices)

I find it ironic.
In 1941 - 1945, we fought the Great War against Japan.
Now, Japanese Big Business and Government Policy is the last hope of the American Consumer to survive (much less keep the American Way of Life) against his/her own leadership and American Big Business.
The Japanese are the primary sellers of hybrid vehicles, and have been so since gasoline first went up. The American Big Three could not be bothered, and even now produce very few hybrids, and their technology is far behind the Japanese.

Irony worthy of Shakespeare.

[Limper]

Oil should be over $150 by the end of July.

[Edena_of_Neith]

It's pushing $140 per barrel right now.

The way I see it - especially if the Japanese are the first to produce plug-in hybrids - American consumers may be down on their knees, begging the Japanese for their cars, effectively begging the Japanese to save them (us) from their (our) own government.

I have a report that the 3rd Generation regular Prius Hybrid (Toyota, 2009 release date) may get upwards of 100 miles per gallon. I am quite skeptical, but if they can beat the current 45 to 60 mph, more power to them.
That's without plug-in power. Add that, and you easily get more than 100 mpg. The lithium-ion battery concept is a problem (it tends to explode ...) but if anyone can hurtle this technological obstacle, it is the Japanese (who are spending billions to hurtle it right now.)

Especially with gasoline at $4 and riding a rocket up, up, and away.

[Limper]

It's pushing $140 per barrel right now.

The way I see it - especially if the Japanese are the first to produce plug-in hybrids - American consumers may be down on their knees, begging the Japanese for their cars, effectively begging the Japanese to save them (us) from their (our) own government.

I have a report that the 3rd Generation regular Prius Hybrid (Toyota, 2009 release date) may get upwards of 100 miles per gallon. I am quite skeptical, but if they can beat the current 45 to 60 mph, more power to them.
That's without plug-in power. Add that, and you easily get more than 100 mpg. The lithium-ion battery concept is a problem (it tends to explode ...) but if anyone can hurtle this technological obstacle, it is the Japanese (who are spending billions to hurtle it right now.)

Especially with gasoline at $4 and riding a rocket up, up, and away.

The Japanses still need us to buy thier products and to furnish raw materials so I wouldn't go so far as to say we'd be begging them.

Japan and us have a mutually beneficial relationship and economic symbiosis.

[doc]

I believer the Saudi's are upping the price to make more profits and to help thier Al Queda friends bring "the Great Satan" down so the price of crude will go up to $175 or so and top 5.50 by summer's end

[Utrecht]

It's pushing $140 per barrel right now.

The way I see it - especially if the Japanese are the first to produce plug-in hybrids - American consumers may be down on their knees, begging the Japanese for their cars, effectively begging the Japanese to save them (us) from their (our) own government.

I have a report that the 3rd Generation regular Prius Hybrid (Toyota, 2009 release date) may get upwards of 100 miles per gallon. I am quite skeptical, but if they can beat the current 45 to 60 mph, more power to them.
That's without plug-in power. Add that, and you easily get more than 100 mpg. The lithium-ion battery concept is a problem (it tends to explode ...) but if anyone can hurtle this technological obstacle, it is the Japanese (who are spending billions to hurtle it right now.)

Especially with gasoline at $4 and riding a rocket up, up, and away.


Edena - you are looking at things in way to small a way - sure the Japanese are ahead of us in this part of green technology - but the States is leaders in other areas (Solar) - just like the Dutch/Danes/Spanish are masters in Wind technology.

One country cant be the best at everything - and while gasoline prices are an immediate and very public (and good news story) there are many other areas where crude oil usage affects - and where the US is taking a lead in.