[Canadian Politics] Gov't to fall Oct. 16th

[PWD]

Duceppe and the Bloc have laid out 5 "non-negotiable" conditions the Tories must agree to in order to have Bloc support on the Oct 16th throne speech.

I don't see any possibility the tories will bow to this, and I don't see the NDP or the Libs stepping forward to support them either. The concessions either would demand would be too intrinsically repulsive to the tories, and they've spent long enough pissing on NDP and Liberal core values that neither group will be feeling charitable. I expect we'll see the government toppled, and an election.

Here's the CBC article:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/09/22/bloc-throne-speech.html

Tories must dance to Bloc tune: Duceppe
Last Updated: Saturday, September 22, 2007 | 6:51 PM ET
CBC News

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe has outlined five "non-negotiable" conditions the federal government must accept if it wants his party's support for the Oct. 16 throne speech.

In a speech delivered to Bloc members in Rimouski, Que., on Saturday, Duceppe said he's seeking a clear commitment from the Conservatives that Canadian soldiers will leave Afghanistan when the mission ends in February 2009.

The Bloc's other conditions for supporting the throne speech kicking off a new session of Parliament call for:


The elimination of all federal spending powers in provincial jurisdictions.
The government to respect the Kyoto Protocol.
The continuation of supply management in the agriculture sector.
Promises to help Quebec's battered forestry industry.


Duceppe said he's ready to vote against the government's throne speech unless his demands are met, raising the possibility of a general election before the new year.

"We assume all the consequences," he said. "If it means an election, it means an election."

In his speech, Duceppe compared some of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's policies to those of U.S. President George Bush, and said the Conservatives' attempts to woo Quebecers are just a facade — that they really don't understand the province.

The Bloc leader's comments were made two days after Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon, the Conservatives' Quebec lieutenant, told reporters that Duceppe is "not useful" in Ottawa.

Cannon also said Duceppe's party, founded to promote Quebec sovereignty, doesn't play a "vital role" and hasn't "delivered anything" for the province.

Liberal MP Denis Coderre suggested the Bloc's move showed they were panicking after last week's Quebec byelections. The Bloc lost a seat to the Conservatives, and had its lead reduced in another.

Election call could be up to Liberals, NDP

The pressure will be on the Liberals or the NDP to support the Conservatives if they don't want the government to lose the vote on the throne speech.

The NDP has long been demanding the withdrawal of Canadian soldiers from Afghanistan. On Friday, NDP Leader Jack Layton said his party will wait to hear the throne speech before deciding how to vote, although both he and Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion have previously said they won't support a Tory throne speech.

Since the Tories were elected in January 2006, the Bloc has helped the minority government survive three confidence votes, including two on federal budgets.

Current standings in the 308-seat Commons are: Conservatives 126; Liberals 96; Bloc 49, NDP 30; three Independents and four vacancies.

So, canuckistanians, what are your predictions?

[Freedom Canadian]

I don't know how serious Duceppe is feeling about the non-negotiable part. I mean, he made similar "non-negotiable" demands before the last budget and yet the government has not fallen. Basically, those are the core demands of their party (the broken record if you will).

But on the other hand, if he thinks the Bloc can get a few more seats, he'll provoke elections if he can. And his comment that he assumes the consequences means that he thinks enough time has gone by that the population won't mind an election, so the threat is certainly more credible than on the first budget.

What'll probably happen is that if Harper promises some pro-QC things, Duceppe will relent. But I'm just guessing here.

I'm not sure the liberals are ready for an election, though, so they might vote with the tories, you never know.

I dunno, I guess I'd say it's 50/50 from my point of view so far.

[Snatch]

I think this was inevitable. I'm surprised the Tories have stayed this long on power as they have.

I think the Liberals may prop the government this time simply because they seem a bit disorganized and unprepared for an election at this point.

[PWD]

Both the NDP and the Libs have claimed they will not support a Tory throne speach. We'll see whether it's an attempt to wring concessions, or genuine.

I think that there are few concessions the tories would be willing to offer that either would accept.

[Ancalagon]

# The elimination of all federal spending powers in provincial jurisdictions.
# The government to respect the Kyoto Protocol.

That is not going to happen...

[Northcott]

If you're counting on Dion to plan votes based on strategy, I'd be iffy about that proposition. I think he'd lead with his heart rather than his head, and I think he's eager to drop this pretence of civility and go straight for a political scrap with Harper.

[Freedom Canadian]

I don't know, Dion did announce that he would wait until he saw the speech before deciding whether he would vote for it or not. No idle threats there.

It could mean that he doesn't want to be embarrassed if he says something now and acts contrary to that laterà because the Cons called his bluff.

Of course, it could also mean that, as you say, he plans on voting against it anyway to have elections.

Personally, I think he's just keeping his options open at this point.

[Northcott]

It wasn't my intent to imply that Dion will try and force an election, just that he's not going to base his votes on political strategy. He'll examine Harper's platform (likely taking umbrage at various points) and make his decision based on that. He's very much a thinker.

My feeling, however, is that when the chips are down and if it looks like he's being thrown a challenge from another party -- or somebody in particular -- he'll drop the gloves without blinking an eye. If Harper's looking to have an election called but being able to blame the calling of it on somebody else, which is entirely in keeping with his brand of smarmy dishonesty, then it won't be hard at all for him to manufacture that circumstance.