Herman Cain? (What gives, with the polls?)

[Edena_of_Neith]

This guy, Herman Cain, seems to be the new Republican Party frontrunner.

Anyone have polling information, information on where he stands in each of the states?

According to what I've read, Herman Cain is in the lead in:

Iowa (early state to hold a primary or caucus)
Nevada (early state)
South Carolina (early state)

Georgia (later state)
Nebraska (later state)
North Carolina (later state)
West Virginia (later state)

In New Hampshire (early state) Mitt Romney is in the lead, and Herman Cain is in 2nd place.
In Florida (early state) and Michigan (early state) it appears to be a Tie between Herman Cain and Mitt Romney.

Anyone have additional information? (very curious)

[Hatter]

The GOP primary is still pretty volatile, I don't see Cain pulling it out given how much bad press his economic plan is drawing even from within his party.

[Edena_of_Neith]

Until 2 months ago, I'd never heard of the guy. Up until quite recently, taken no notice, since he was at 3% to 4% in the polls, and appeared to be going nowhere.

Just a thread to monitor the polls on this.
We all know polls are worthless, but it's still (gruesomely) entertaining to see how it all plays out.

(shrugs)

What will happen? Beats me.

[Algolei]

Until 2 months ago, I'd never heard of the guy.

He was the black one.

[shiningbrow]

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/rachel-maddow-bill-maher-and-toure-point-and-laugh-at-herman-cain-candidacy/

Reluctance to point out the Emperor's New Clothes on this one smacks of reverse racism to me.

[Scutisorex Shrewlord]

The longer this goes on, the more convinced I have become that Cain was in this from the start to push his "brand" and sell books, just as they asserted in that video. On the surface, there is a lot to like about Cain, but dig a bit deeper and you realize he's a marketing specialist and a policy dunce.

[TiQuinn]

He's Huckabee. He'll win Iowa, and lose everywhere else.

[Edena_of_Neith]

(shrugs)

Just watching, casually watching.
Herman Cain is now the 'Republican Front-Runner', as it were, so might as well see how it turns out.

The first caucus is surprisingly close, only a little more than 2 months off. The Republicans here in Florida moved up the Florida Primary, so all the 'early states' moved their primaries or caucuses up to compensate.

[Snatch]

He was the black one.

Was?

[Algolei]

Was?

It was a crazy time....

[Redallia]

It was a crazy time....

...and everybody was doing so much blow.

[Edena_of_Neith]

He's raised 5 million in the last month. Somebody out there is giving money to his campaign.

It seems to me almost like there is a civil war in the Republican Party, between the supporters of Cain and the supporters of Romney (Cain and Romney, being considered the two Republican Frontrunners.)

The proof is in the pudding. Or, in this case, in the returns from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. And a bit later, Michigan and Florida.

[Hatter]

It's almost like there's a split in the GOP between people who want to back a candidate that can win vs. people who will only back a candidate that perfectly matches their ideology.

Except, you know, that's every single election ever for any party running a primary.

[shiningbrow]

I was contemplating posting this vid under "Animals Being Dicks," but this display from the dangerous intellectual running for the Republican nomination seemed more appropriate. I have to get back to sinning and being stupid now...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N3-j3HM7-A&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwvsbI2VyjI&feature=related

[Brynja]

...ban mosques...

[Scutisorex Shrewlord]

It's almost like there's a split in the GOP between people who want to back a candidate that can win vs. people who will only back a candidate that perfectly matches their ideology.

Except, you know, that's every single election ever for any party running a primary.

Full of win.

[shiningbrow]

Best defense is a good offense department, or how to be an asshole in one easy lesson:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/10/us/politics/cains-lawyer-on-accusing-think-twice.html?src=recg


Cain’s Lawyer on Accusing: ‘Think Twice’
By JIM RUTENBERG

L. Lin Wood, the lawyer hired by the Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain to fend off sexual harassment accusations, has warned that any other women who might be considering coming forward with similar allegations “should think twice.”

On Wednesday morning, less than 24 hours after Karen Kraushaar identified herself as one of two women who had received monetary settlements relating to harassment allegations against Mr. Cain while working for the National Restaurant Association in the late 1990s, Ms. Kraushaar faced questions about a workplace complaint she filed at a subsequent job, at the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Hours later, Rush Limbaugh seized on that report to argue that Ms. Kraushaar has “a pattern of whining.”

And when another accuser, Sharon Bialek — whose last name Mr. Limbaugh has pronounced as “buy-a-lick”— appeared Wednesday on MSNBC, she faced fresh inquiries about her troubled financial history, which had been documented and publicized by Mr. Cain’s campaign under the heading, “Who Is Sharon Bialek?”

As Ms. Kraushaar continued her day-old effort to bring the other women accusing Mr. Cain of sexual harassment together for a joint news briefing, she and the others confronted the challenges of taking on a presidential candidate: intensive scrutiny of their backgrounds and motives, encouraged and amplified in this case by conservative news outlets and commentators whose support for Mr. Cain as he battles the allegations has helped him weather the crisis so far.

Ms. Kraushaar told friends she was beginning to worry that all the scrutiny might keep the other women from appearing publicly with her.

As of early Wednesday evening, she had not heard directly from Ms. Bialek. But Ms. Bialek’s lawyer, Gloria Allred, said she was willing to be part of a joint news conference. Nor had Ms. Kraushaar heard from another woman who received a settlement from the association after complaining of inappropriate advances from Mr. Cain and whose complaint against him is described by people familiar with it as among the most serious.

Keeping her own low profile on Wednesday, Ms. Kraushaar said in a brief statement to The New York Times, “Anyone should be able to report allegations of sexual harassment without fear that their lives and careers will be put on public display and laid open to public scrutiny.”

But with polls showing Mr. Cain still running at or near the front of the Republican pack and some conservatives seeing the accusations as an effort to halt his candidacy, the pressure on the accusers and the accused was intense.

Throughout the day, the political world watched to see if Ms. Kraushaar’s effort to present a united front with the other women would succeed in putting more details and possibly one or two more names behind the allegations — or if he and his supporters would undermine their credibility, keep them from making more public claims against him and proceed with his campaign.

Even as some Republican Party elders continued to criticize his handling of the accusations, Mr. Cain benefited from the support of conservative-leaning commentators and news outlets, helping him to raise money. He drew warm applause at the CNBC debate Wednesday in Michigan when he dismissed the accusations, saying, “The American people deserve better.”

The Drudge Report noted that Ms. Bialek had lived in the same building as David Axelrod, President Obama’s political strategist, and said that Ms. Kraushaar “works for Obama.” (A spokeswoman at the Treasury Department in a nonpolitical job, Ms. Kraushaar was also a spokeswoman in the immigration service under President George W. Bush.)

In The New York Post on Tuesday, the columnist Andrea Peyser called Ms. Bialek a “gold digger” who “flirted like a tart” with Mr. Cain. And Mr. Limbaugh amplified the accounts of Ms. Bialek’s financial troubles and the story, first reported on Wednesday by The Associated Press, about Ms. Kraushaar’s workplace complaint at the immigration service.

“What are these babes going to do with a panel?” Mr. Limbaugh said of Ms. Kraushaar’s proposed news briefing. “What does it prove?”

Mr. Cain’s campaign said that Mr. Wood’s services included not only legal representation, but also a research team, and that it had hired another crisis management public relations expert, though it declined to name this person.

Speaking with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Mr. Wood, who is based in Atlanta, said Mr. Cain would consider legal action against other accusers, though he did not announce any actual plans to do so.

“I’m not here to scare anyone off,” Mr. Wood said, in the same interview when he warned new accusers to “think twice,” adding, “I’ve been brought in to bring an element of fairness to the accusations being brought.”

Mr. Wood has a national reputation as an aggressive advocate, having represented the family of JonBenet Ramsey and the N.B.A. star Kobe Bryant in his sexual assault case in 2004, which was settled.

Ms. Allred, who represents Ms. Bialek and has her own national reputation for representing women in high-profile sexual harassment cases, said she had prepared her client for criticism, but accused the Cain campaign of taking a “scorched-earth” approach.

“He’s got millions of dollars to spend on investigators, high priced attorneys, P.R. people, political operatives, you name it, he can spend it to get what he needs to basically get the high-priced weapons of war ready and aimed at our clients,” Ms. Allred said. “The women we represent don’t have those kinds of resources, and that makes their willingness to speak out all the more heroic.”

Ms. Allred said Ms. Bialek — a former employee of the restaurant association’s education foundation who said Mr. Cain effectively offered to help her find a new job in return for sex, making a rough physical advance in the process — was not bowed by the criticism that had come her way. Much of the scrutiny has been focused on two bankruptcies in her past and a series of debts. (Ms. Bialek has said she is not seeking money to tell her story, though she has not ruled out a book at some point.)

Joel P. Bennett, the lawyer for Ms. Kraushaar, said she, too, was prepared for scrutiny, adding that her job as a spokeswoman for the inspector general for tax administration at the Treasury Department prepared her well.

The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that Ms. Kraushaar made a complaint at some point in 2002 or 2003 that supervisors at the Immigration and Naturalization Service were unfairly refusing to let her work from home after she was injured in a car accident, and that she had also complained about a sexually suggestive e-mail a supervisor circulated about the differences between men and women. It reported that she had requested a cash settlement, a promotion and leave time, but ultimately dropped the matter.

Mr. Bennett, who also represented her in that case, refused to comment on it, but questioned its significance, noting that in court cases generally, “If you file a complaint against employer X, and filed a complaint five years ago against employer Y, that’s not considered relevant.”

Mr. Bennett said late Wednesday that even if Ms. Kraushaar enlisted only Ms. Bialek for her briefing, she would go forward nonetheless.

Susan Saulny, Richard A. Oppel Jr. and Jeremy W. Peters contributed reporting.

[AZRogue]

What drives me crazy are his insane lies. He keeps saying that their charges were found to be "baseless" but can't remember by whom. WTF? He obviously kept changing his story because he hoped that no further info would come out, which strikes me as being so naive that that alone disqualifies him from running for President. And to falsely accuse Politico of having one of the women's sons working for them, only to be proven untrue (again) ... the guy needs to just stop lying.

It's also interesting to note that the two women who have come forward so far are white blonde women. Coincidence? Or just preference?

[Hatter]

I'm not convinced Cain is really running for President, his campaign is a disaster. And Perry tanks his own numbers every time he goes off-script (https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=zUA2rDVrmNg).

With primary season coming close, Romney is looking more and more like the 'safe' choice. He has a core group of supporters who are basically all that's left of the neo-cons and moderate conservatives, but he doesn't motivate the impassioned tea party members and the non-LDS evangelicals hate him for his religion.

Here's the thing, I don't think a Romney administration will look appreciably different from an Obama one. Which, from my perspective, isn't that bad, but for the conservative base that's a horrifying prospect. My big fear with Romney getting the nomination is that if he loses to Obama the GOP will likely see it as a sign that moderate candidates can't win and they should tack farther to the right (repeat of 2008).

[Ancalagon]

Scott Addams, author of dilbert, had this interesting blog on the topic. His question is not "is Cain guilty" but rather "why are people backing him?"

As an aside, Scott has gotten in hot water before when commenting on these types of issues. I think his very blunt and clear "point 1 2 3" is a very effective way of staying out of trouble... well we will see if that worked out.

Warning: This blog is written for a rational audience that likes to have fun wrestling with unique or controversial points of view. It is written in a style that can easily be confused as advocacy or opinion. It is not intended to change anyone's beliefs or actions. If you quote from this post or link to it, which you are welcome to do, please take responsibility for whatever happens if you mismatch the audience and the content.

------------

Prior to five women accusing Herman Cain of sexual harassment, I predicted he would become the Republican nominee. After the accusations, most pundits expect Cain to go down in flames. I'm going to double down and reaffirm my prediction that Cain will win the Republican nomination.

Let me begin by clearly stating a few things:

I don't think Cain is qualified to be president.
Sexual harassment is a serious offense.
With so much smoke, it's hard to believe there's no fire.


But none of that might matter to a good number of Republican voters. 40% of voters would prefer any Republican over President Obama. So whoever has the best chance of winning the election will be preferred by most Republicans, no matter what his qualifications and offenses are.

But that's not the heart of my argument today. To make my next point, first we need to do a little poll.

Consider all of the employee lawsuits and out of court settlements of which you have personal knowledge. Your list can include sexual harassment claims plus all other types of employee claims, including cases involving injuries and unfair practices. Include only situations in which you were personally involved or you know the people who were. My question is this: What percentage of these employee claims do you know for sure to be bullshit?

I'll go first. I owned two restaurants for years, and you can imagine how many claims I saw. Before that, I worked at the local phone company, and before that for a large bank. I've had personal knowledge of perhaps twenty employee claims against employers. To the best of my knowledge, 100% of them were bullshit. I could be wrong, but that's my impression. And impressions matter. (None were sexual harassment cases.)

I'm using the term bullshit instead of "true" because there's a slight difference. In some cases the employees took advantage of obscure labor laws and found ways to force settlements without ever experiencing any damages.

Now consider the average Republican mindset. We're talking about a pro-employer group of voters. For many of these voters, Cain's situation will remind them of all the dishonest employee claims they've seen. For many people, especially men, Cain will look like a typical employer getting sued every five minutes by employees looking for cash settlements. Voting for Cain will feel like a vote against fraudulent employee claims, even if that is the opposite of reality. It will FEEL like a referendum against fraudulent claims.

The other factor working in Cain's favor is his absurd level of confidence and optimism. You have to figure he's always had it. It's easy to imagine that if the allegations happened exactly as the women described, he saw it differently at the time. In the mind of an optimist with a huge ego, he probably thought he was doing nothing more than giving the women a chance to have some career assistance and also enjoy the extraordinary pleasure of his company.

Our system is designed so you can't escape justice by claiming you didn't know you violated a law. That's the only way the system can work. But I think it's entirely plausible that Cain believed he was doing these women two favors: help with their careers and the option of great sex too. It's easy to imagine that's how he saw it. I think a lot of Republicans who believe the women's stories are going to give Cain a pass because there's a fine line between optimism and stupidity, and if you want an optimist for your leader, you know he's going to cross the line into stupidity now and again. It's a package deal. It's Ronald Reagan. It's Bill Clinton.

For the bad readers who might be visiting from other sites, I will end by reiterating:

I don't think Cain is qualified to be president.
Sexual harassment is a serious offense.
With so much smoke, it's hard to believe there's no fire.

I'll also add that I'm not a Republican. I'm just predicting how the Republicans who have a soft spot for employers and optimists might think

p.s. My understanding of his 9 9 9 tax plan is that it's in essence a big tax cut for the rich. Based on that alone, I wouldn't want to back him.

[Harry]

I'll go first. I owned two restaurants for years, and you can imagine how many claims I saw. Before that, I worked at the local phone company, and before that for a large bank. I've had personal knowledge of perhaps twenty employee claims against employers. To the best of my knowledge, 100% of them were bullshit. I could be wrong, but that's my impression. And impressions matter. (None were sexual harassment cases.)

Huh.

I've got personal knowledge of about that many cases of harassment, maybe less if I counted, but about that many, over 25 years in the record business and groceries.

Not a ONE was bullshit. There was some measure of truth to all of them. In most cases, the truth was that actionable harassment occurred. In the ones that weren't actionable, the accused wasn't entirely innocent, even if the charges had no merit.

I've heard people charge abuse, racism, discrimination of many types. But I've seen more sexual harassment cases PASSED on that acted on.

[Edena_of_Neith]

I have no comment on the Sexual Harassment Allegations against Cain, except for one comment.
Cain has dropped significantly within the polls in Iowa (from 15 points ahead, to 4 points ahead, of Romney) in the last week ... and that this drop might (or might not) be due to said allegations.

It appears that Cain's loss (and Perry's collapse) is Newt Gingrich's gain, and Gingrich is now in 2nd place in South Carolina, and tied with Romney for 2nd place in a new CBS National Poll. In Iowa, he is in 3rd place, but rising and only 4 points behind Romney now.

[Name Lips]

All I know is paying off a woman to drop the whole thing doesn't look good.

And politics is all about looking good.

[Radu]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=uE5xZKszXMQ

This video is sometimes hard to take for a parody, because it makes as much sense to me as Hermain Cain does a lot of the time. The site it comes from, badlipreading.com, has a lot of these funny videos. Check out the one with Michelle Bachmann and the one with Barack Obama.

[The Winslow]

This video is sometimes hard to take for a parody, because it makes as much sense to me as Hermain Cain does a lot of the time.

That'd be something to do for one of these parody sites. Take a particularly ridiculous speech from a target. Broadcast it unaltered as if it were one of the regular parodies. Add a "we didn't need to change anything" caption at the end. Or maybe a laugh track.

[Edena_of_Neith]

(dark humor)

Look on the bright side, Winslow.
At least, they hold their debates in English.

Can you imagine, if they held their debates in French? You had to listen to these people, in your native language? Hear commentary from our news outlets, in French? (FOX News, in French!)

Be glad, my fellow Americans, that this is not the case.
Because if it was, Napolean would rise from the grave as a Revenant, along with his whole French army. France would invade America, and they would win! (After listening to Rush Limbaugh for long enough, they would offer neither mercy or quarter.)
They would win (firing nuclear weapons at undead is rather useless, since the ashes just get back up, reform, and march on.)

[Aloysius]

Can you imagine, if they held their debates in French?

You don't know about of Lefebvre (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Lefebvre), Lancar or Morano. We have politicians as dumb as yours, and you don't need to travel far from France to find even worse ones (Italy, Maghreb...).