Quebec by-elections

[Northcott]

So is it just me, or does anybody else think that the media is making a HUGE freaking deal out of a very small thing?

[doc]

Haven't heard a word about it, is FC causing trouble again ?

[PWD]

Small thing, but any time federalists slap down separatists, it's news.

[Northcott]

Every bloody news program is hoisting the question: "Is Dion fit to lead after this stunning loss?"

Come the fuck on, people! Even the CBC was pulling this shit, and I normally expect higher journalistic standards from them. Mountain out of a molehill.

[Freedom Canadian]

Haven't heard a word about it, is FC causing trouble again ?

:mad:

[Ancalagon]

Every bloody news program is hoisting the question: "Is Dion fit to lead after this stunning loss?"

Come the fuck on, people! Even the CBC was pulling this shit, and I normally expect higher journalistic standards from them. Mountain out of a molehill.

It's a set back yes, but not a death blow...

[Northcott]

It's a set back yes, but not a death blow...


That's exactly it... and a minor one, at that. They knew they were going to lose Outremont (sp?): Trudeau was pulled out of there, and they knew that the NDP candidate was a former provincial Liberal who, apparently, was very popular in that riding. He was a ringer. That was a no-win, and that's the place that the media are focusing on the most.

Dion made an error in putting in his own candidate, he shouldn't have stepped in, etc. Bullshit. If Trudeau had run and been beaten his first time out, it would have lead to strutting and smirking from Harper and Baird for ages to come: cheap, petty little personal shots designed to derail issues and provoke emotional outbursts from Trudeau, who's very defensive about his father's legacy. Understandably as, apparently, P.E.T. doted on his children.

The Liberals are still widely distrusted in Quebec, from what I understand. Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. The chances of making gains in the by-elections, without a full publicity campaign to emphasize the changes in the party, was lottery ticket territory. Standing back at this point and waiting for the real fight to begin was the wisest thing that could have been done.

I just hope that when the time comes, they actually pull it off.


It's funny. The political analysts who were talking about this on the CBC were shaking their heads and talking about what a rotten politician Dion is. They praised him for his intellect, for his ability to make decisions on policy, for his ethics -- but every one of them slammed him as a politician, saying he lacked the ability to network and make deals that's necessary for political success. Then one spoke up and said; "He's a terrible politican, but he's level-headed, thoughtful, intelligent... he'd make a great Prime Minister. We'll just never see it because he'll never get elected."

[EhtoZed]

Every bloody news program is hoisting the question: "Is Dion fit to lead after this stunning loss?"

Come the fuck on, people! Even the CBC was pulling this shit, and I normally expect higher journalistic standards from them. Mountain out of a molehill.
It's not like shitty leaders have hurt the Liberals in the past. ;)

Or

Maybe they thought lack of personality worked out for the cons so they'd give it a shot.

Or

It's Quebec, who the hell cares?

I got loads of these folks....

[Northcott]

You're on fire today. :)

[Freedom Canadian]

The Liberals are still widely distrusted in Quebec, from what I understand. Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

You are not. :)

And if anyone in english Canada thinks that selecting Dion as Liberal leader was a favor to Quebec or that he would fare better here than an anglo chief, they are deluding themselves. He is pretty much despised in this province. I'm not sure why either.

[Northcott]

You are not. :)

And if anyone in english Canada thinks that selecting Dion as Liberal leader was a favor to Quebec or that he would fare better here than an anglo chief, they are deluding themselves. He is pretty much despised in this province. I'm not sure why either.

Nobody thought it was a favour. Pretty much every other leadership contender, save Kennedy, took opportunities to get in cheap shots at Dion, point out how his ethnicity means nothing in terms of electibility, etc.

As for why he's despised, my hunch would be because he went toe-to-toe with Bouchard right after the Bloc was formed, and absolutely refused to relent. He was a seperatist in his youth, but while going door-to-door for them to try and convince others, a kindly old couple invited him in, plied him with rum and coke for a couple hours, and managed to turn his point of view around. So when he ended up in politics, years later, and Bouchard jumped ship from the PC to the Bloc, Dion and he had several very public debates over it -- none of them formal, iirc. Dion earned a lot of hate in his home province for that. He was also strongly connected to Chretien at a couple points.

Funny thing is that his record for ethics is impeccible. His stance on policy has always been thoughtful, if not ones I'd agree upon. He was also the only member of Chretien's cabinet who ever had the balls to stand up to the PM. Dion's a fighter, and refuses to give up once a scrap has started.

I think that's where the other parties are underestimating him. He's not savvy, he doesn't know how to bullshit, he's not suave, and he's not a glad-handler who makes and breaks alliances at the drop of a hat. He sucks at typical political manipulation games. But he's much more tenatious than most, and just won't shut the fuck up. He'll say what's on his mind, and call people out directly.

It may be that Liberal image handlers will temper or remove this trait, and that would be a shame. It's his greatest strength, and the one ability that the neo-cons have no suitable weapon nor defense against.

The great weakness of it is that he loses his temper and gets flustered, which leaves him looking inarticulate -- which is a shame, given how exceptionally intelligent he seems to be.

[Freedom Canadian]

He was also strongly connected to Chretien at a couple points.

That's probably more meaningful than his betrayal of Bouchard.



Funny thing is that his record for ethics is impeccible. His stance on policy has always been thoughtful, if not ones I'd agree upon. He was also the only member of Chretien's cabinet who ever had the balls to stand up to the PM. Dion's a fighter, and refuses to give up once a scrap has started.

I think that's where the other parties are underestimating him. He's not savvy, he doesn't know how to bullshit, he's not suave, and he's not a glad-handler who makes and breaks alliances at the drop of a hat. He sucks at typical political manipulation games. But he's much more tenatious than most, and just won't shut the fuck up. He'll say what's on his mind, and call people out directly.

It may be that Liberal image handlers will temper or remove this trait, and that would be a shame. It's his greatest strength, and the one ability that the neo-cons have no suitable weapon nor defense against.

The great weakness of it is that he loses his temper and gets flustered, which leaves him looking inarticulate -- which is a shame, given how exceptionally intelligent he seems to be.

Mmh. After reading this, my guess is that he is despised because he's an easy target for dirty and appealing-to-emotions politics.

It's unfair really. Personally, I like the guy. And I know people who were in his classes when he was a university teacher and they all say he's very nice, approachable, smart and all-around a great guy.

[Northcott]

It's unfair really. Personally, I like the guy. And I know people who were in his classes when he was a university teacher and they all say he's very nice, approachable, smart and all-around a great guy.

That's pretty much universally said of him.

I think that if Dion does well, it'll be because he gets out and meets people. By all accounts he's a remarkably likeable individual in person, and it seems that wherever he goes he wins new support. If people take the time to talk to him, he wins their respect -- and respect is a bloody rare currency in politics. His straight talk is hard to trump.

If he flunks, it'll be because he sometimes becomes indignant at dirty politics. When Harper and cronies suggested that a Liberal MP was connected to the Hindu bombers of that Scottish flight all those years ago -- without foundation, of course -- Dion was so mad that he was sputtering and stuttering with indignation. It's understandable, and even admirable, but most people are too stunned to see past the surface image it projects.

Of course, dirty tactics can cross a line and cost a party in a big way. With Duceppe posturing about another election, I'm wondering if he's got something (information or a strategy) tucked away that the public doesn't know about yet.

[Ancalagon]

Nobody thought it was a favour. Pretty much every other leadership contender, save Kennedy, took opportunities to get in cheap shots at Dion, point out how his ethnicity means nothing in terms of electibility, etc.

As for why he's despised, my hunch would be because he went toe-to-toe with Bouchard right after the Bloc was formed, and absolutely refused to relent. He was a seperatist in his youth, but while going door-to-door for them to try and convince others, a kindly old couple invited him in, plied him with rum and coke for a couple hours, and managed to turn his point of view around. So when he ended up in politics, years later, and Bouchard jumped ship from the PC to the Bloc, Dion and he had several very public debates over it -- none of them formal, iirc. Dion earned a lot of hate in his home province for that. He was also strongly connected to Chretien at a couple points.

Funny thing is that his record for ethics is impeccible. His stance on policy has always been thoughtful, if not ones I'd agree upon. He was also the only member of Chretien's cabinet who ever had the balls to stand up to the PM. Dion's a fighter, and refuses to give up once a scrap has started.

I think that's where the other parties are underestimating him. He's not savvy, he doesn't know how to bullshit, he's not suave, and he's not a glad-handler who makes and breaks alliances at the drop of a hat. He sucks at typical political manipulation games. But he's much more tenatious than most, and just won't shut the fuck up. He'll say what's on his mind, and call people out directly.

It may be that Liberal image handlers will temper or remove this trait, and that would be a shame. It's his greatest strength, and the one ability that the neo-cons have no suitable weapon nor defense against.

The great weakness of it is that he loses his temper and gets flustered, which leaves him looking inarticulate -- which is a shame, given how exceptionally intelligent he seems to be.

He'd make a great prime minister - but I fear he's not a great politician, or great party leader. This is something Chretien was much better at.

And quite frankly, the fractious infighting of the liberals did damage to their image and their "internal culture" IMO - they booted Chretien out, so it's going to encourage other people to try to oust the leader so they can get on top.

Ancalagon

[Northcott]

Excellent point, Anc. Though it looks like they're rallying a strong public face of unity, at least. Whether or not that holds is another matter. Watching Scott Brison on the Rick Mercer Report was priceless, though!

Brison's an eco-nut and an outdoorsman. His house is by the ocean, and he loves sea-kyaking -- so he takes Mercer out with him. Mercer continues the interview while proving that not all Newfoundlanders are at home on the sea, and continues to take playful little jabs at Brison... such as noting that he manages to refer to Dion by first and last name every time he speaks of him. Finally it ends with the two of them bobbing in a cove:

Mercer: So do you get whales around here?

Brison: (unintelligble answer)

Mercer: C'mon! It's a simple yes or no question! Do you get whales around here? And if you can, answering without mentioning Stephane Dion by name.

Brison (laughing): Yes. Just over there (he points to the nearby shore) we had a whale beach itself. It died.

(pause)
Stephane Dion rushed into try and save it, but didn't make it in time.

(Mercer breaks into laughter, then gives a shocked look to the camera as Brison adds):
Stephen Harper came along and clubbed it to death.

[EhtoZed]

Excellent point, Anc. Though it looks like they're rallying a strong public face of unity, at least. Whether or not that holds is another matter. Watching Scott Brison on the Rick Mercer Report was priceless, though!

Brison's an eco-nut and an outdoorsman. His house is by the ocean, and he loves sea-kyaking -- so he takes Mercer out with him. Mercer continues the interview while proving that not all Newfoundlanders are at home on the sea, and continues to take playful little jabs at Brison... such as noting that he manages to refer to Dion by first and last name every time he speaks of him. Finally it ends with the two of them bobbing in a cove:

Mercer: So do you get whales around here?

Brison: (unintelligble answer)

Mercer: C'mon! It's a simple yes or no question! Do you get whales around here? And if you can, answering without mentioning Stephane Dion by name.

Brison (laughing): Yes. Just over there (he points to the nearby shore) we had a whale beach itself. It died.

(pause)
Stephane Dion rushed into try and save it, but didn't make it in time.

(Mercer breaks into laughter, then gives a shocked look to the camera as Brison adds):
Stephen Harper came along and clubbed it to death.I'm sorry I missed that. Has Mercer started his new season?

[there_is_no_bob]

I'm sorry I missed that. Has Mercer started his new season?
http://www.cbc.ca/mercerreport/

It's there at the moment.

[Trainz]

All I know and care about at the moment is that Marois is leading the PQ (which will probably be the next ruling party), and that she made it clear that for the time being she will let the Referendum and the separatist movement sit on a shelf.

I'm super glad about this. About fucking time. Smart girl.

[The Winslow]

Every bloody news program is hoisting the question: "Is Dion fit to lead after this stunning loss?"

Who would let her lead anything anyway? :confused:








:tongue:

[Northcott]

EhtoZ: Regarding Mercer, that was from his last show of last season. The outing with Brison may well be on his site. Check the link provided above -- the site's usually got some brilliant stuff there anyway. :)


All I know and care about at the moment is that Marois is leading the PQ (which will probably be the next ruling party), and that she made it clear that for the time being she will let the Referendum and the separatist movement sit on a shelf.

I'm super glad about this. About fucking time. Smart girl.

I'm not sure about that. I think Duceppe's getting edgy. When he first appeared on the scene he was suave, level-headed, intelligent -- but in the last year he's sounding much touchier, like he feels a need to prove himself. He's stuttering more in speeches, he's getting flustered more easily, and he's become far more evasive in answering questions, resorting to more typical politician behaviours with the indulgence of duplicity.

He's looking for a big fight... or if not, my hunch is that he will be in the next year or two. Three, tops. I think we'll see overtures toward a new Referendum not too far in the future, and one party may well end up leveraging the other to either act on it, or STFU about it.

[doc]

Y'all got rid of your problem children once by deporting the Arcadians, couldn't you do it again ? This time some where other then Louisana ok !

[Northcott]

Y'all got rid of your problem children once by deporting the Arcadians, couldn't you do it again ? This time some where other then Louisana ok !


Acadians, man. A-cadians. The Arcadians are something else entirely.


We're deporting them next year. :D


Edit: Google "Arcadia" Doc. Do it! It makes for the funny!

[doc]

Acadians, man. A-cadians. The Arcadians are something else entirely.


We're deporting them next year. :D

O ACADIANS, thats different. Got the concertration camps set up yet ?

[Trainz]

I'm not sure about that. I think Duceppe's getting edgy. When he first appeared on the scene he was suave, level-headed, intelligent -- but in the last year he's sounding much touchier, like he feels a need to prove himself. He's stuttering more in speeches, he's getting flustered more easily, and he's become far more evasive in answering questions, resorting to more typical politician behaviours with the indulgence of duplicity.

He's looking for a big fight... or if not, my hunch is that he will be in the next year or two. Three, tops. I think we'll see overtures toward a new Referendum not too far in the future, and one party may well end up leveraging the other to either act on it, or STFU about it.

The only way the PQ can get elected is if they STFU about referendum. Marois seems to be aware of this. If Duceppe wants to be a cockmuncher and destroy her efforts, then I'll tell Bush that Duceppe has been hiding Bin Laden in his cave.

[Ancalagon]

O ACADIANS, thats different. Got the concertration camps set up yet ?

Still working on that new image I see eh?

[Northcott]

The only way the PQ can get elected is if they STFU about referendum. Marois seems to be aware of this. If Duceppe wants to be a cockmuncher and destroy her efforts, then I'll tell Bush that Duceppe has been hiding Bin Laden in his cave.

I think he'll wait until after. Short of a major melt-down and controversy, I'm sure he'll keep his mouth shut in the short term. He's explicitly stated in the past that a winning referendum is his prime goal.

[Trainz]

I think he'll wait until after. Short of a major melt-down and controversy, I'm sure he'll keep his mouth shut in the short term. He's explicitly stated in the past that a winning referendum is his prime goal.

Yeah. He and his party are really ruining canadian politics. If all the Bloc votes would go to another party, you and me would be living in a much more socialist country.

As it is, canadian politics are really wrong considering the current world climate. I wish my brethren would realize this and stop giving him their votes.

[Northcott]

Well, it looks like the NDP may have finally made an in-road in Quebec -- so who knows? You may get your wish. If the current candidate in Outremont (sp?) proves popular enough, it may provide inspiration for other ridings.

Of course, Jack Layton's incessant need to shove his face in front of every camera he sees may well sabotage that candidate's prospects at building a new grassroots movement. Or he may fizzle on his own. Only time will tell.

[Trainz]

Well, it looks like the NDP may have finally made an in-road in Quebec -- so who knows? You may get your wish. If the current candidate in Outremont (sp?) proves popular enough, it may provide inspiration for other ridings.

Of course, Jack Layton's incessant need to shove his face in front of every camera he sees may well sabotage that candidate's prospects at building a new grassroots movement. Or he may fizzle on his own. Only time will tell.

Layton is our Obama isn't he? Looks promising, but being far from having proved himself...

[Northcott]

Layton is our Obama isn't he? Looks promising, but being far from having proved himself...


I'd say our Ross Perot. :) He's got some wonderful ideas, but just doesn't know when to shut his mouth. He's also gone off on tangents that end up coming across as rank idiocy, and his perpetual hammering away at the Afghanistan issue without use of any kind of appeal to reason... damn. His overall hate-on for the military is a frightening thing. We really don't live in that ideal a world, Jack. We actually need a military, and fucking them over further isn't a good idea.


The CBC did a report the other night that Gen. Hillier might well have orchestrated this current public support for the military on purpose. They tried to throw sinister overtones on it, but in a mild, weak sort of way. Me? I was left shrugging and saying; "so what?" Our military's been shit upon by our government for nigh on thirty years. So what if Hillier's conducted a PR campaign at home to boost support for the military? It's what was needed!

In spite of having a small military with equipment of no significant merit, our forces in WWII and the years following it were some of the most respected in the world. We were able to become premiere peace-keepers precisely because our military was strong and proud. This has been allowed to decline to the point where we allowed our forces to become the butt of endless jokes while young men and women risked their necks for our nation's causes. That was intolerable.

The Liberals appointing Hillier as the big dog was the best thing that could have happened to our forces. The right man for the right job at the right time.

[Freedom Canadian]

Well, it looks like the NDP may have finally made an in-road in Quebec -- so who knows?

The problem is that in this province, left wing means you're a separatist.

[Northcott]

The problem is that in this province, left wing means you're a separatist.


Apparently that no longer holds true in one riding. :) I've always wondered why the NDP weren't the Quebec non-seperatist party of choice. I mean... shit... the current Conservatives couldn't be farther from the Quebec idealogical norm, from what I understand. The Liberals are distrusted, and have got a long, hard road back to any kind of state of trust. The NDP have the socialist policies and are a non-threatening option.

I'd be really amazed if the NDP can make a long-term success in Quebec with Layton in charge, though. I'd think that their best hope would be to let Quebec politicians speak to the people and for the people, but Layton seems to have this mad impulse to jump in front of a camera whenever he sees one, even if that means overshadowing his own candidates.

[Freedom Canadian]

Apparently that no longer holds true in one riding. :)

Yeah, but how many of those people are left wing and how many voted for Mulcair because he's wildly popular in Québec ?

I mean, Outremont's rep in the Assemblée Nationale is a liberal so they are hardly a leftist riding.



I've always wondered why the NDP weren't the Quebec non-seperatist party of choice.

They are. It's just that the great majority of leftists are separatists, except in anglophone ridings.

If the Bloc didn't exist, the NDP would do very well in this province indeed. It might even be a real contender for forming a federal government.

I mean... shit... the current Conservatives couldn't be farther from the Quebec idealogical norm, from what I understand.

Yeah, but at the same time, the Canadian Tire demographics is as present here as it is in the rest of Canada. :)



I'd be really amazed if the NDP can make a long-term success in Quebec with Layton in charge, though. I'd think that their best hope would be to let Quebec politicians speak to the people and for the people, but Layton seems to have this mad impulse to jump in front of a camera whenever he sees one, even if that means overshadowing his own candidates.

Mmh, maybe Mulcair can do it now that they have one well known "guy" in the province. But at the same time, Layton is quite liked here. Hell, he was at the forefront of the Saint Jean Baptiste parade this year, hand in hand with Duceppe and pretty much everyone thought that was neat.

[Ancalagon]

Yeah. He and his party are really ruining canadian politics.


And THAT is the long term plan, make Canadian politics NOT WORK.

Let's do some simple math - my numbers are wee bit off for simplicity's sake, but whatever. The block gets, each election, about 50 seats. There are about 300 seats total.

Before the block was around, a government just needed a support of the majority to form a majority government - say 53% of seats would give you 159, a majority with a small but comfortable margin. But now... 50 seats are taken away! to get 150 seats out of 250, you need 60% support! So unless there is a *clear* winner in the public opinion, each government is going to be a minority.

With the conservative being sinister (get it ha!) and the liberals still waffling around, neither will be able to win a majority for a while. This results in minority government after minority government, which isn't really a healthy way to run a country...

... and it will allow the block to say "see, Canada doesn't work, why should we stay in it?!?"

[Freedom Canadian]

With the conservative being sinister (get it ha!) and the liberals still waffling around, neither will be able to win a majority for a while. This results in minority government after minority government, which isn't really a healthy way to run a country...

... and it will allow the block to say "see, Canada doesn't work, why should we stay in it?!?"

I agree that the presence of the Bloc makes it very difficult to have a majority government and that our country is set up so that a majority government is almost necessary for stability, but that's a weakness caused by the way things are set up, not by the party itself. I mean, you could say the exact same thing about the NDP (especially if they were bigger than they are now because the Bloc didn't exist). A plurality of options in a democracy is a GOOD thing. I would not want to end up with a system where two parties get a permanent lock on the system like in the US, myself. Having minority governments is a small price to pay for increased choice, I say. I do wish we could have a system where multiple choices are encouraged while still preserving a functional government, though.

However, I don't agree that having minority governments helps the Bloc make the case that Canada doesn't work. In a minority government, the party in power is not in the position to impose its vision on the country, so it doesn't act like the authoritarian authority the Bloc claims it is. By definition a minority government 1) does little and 2) must seek consensus. This is exactly the opposite of the problems separatists have with the Feds.

In fact, now that I put it this way, I'm starting to think that a succession of minority governments might be a good thing. He who governs least governs best and all that.

In other words, the separatists' problem with Canada is that it does too much. So they will hardly say "see ? Canada doesn't do much" as a negative thing. If anything, it weakens separation. You probably can't see that from Ottawa, but here we never hear separatists complain that things are progressing too slowly and that not enough legislation is passing in Ottawa. :)

[Northcott]

Mmh, maybe Mulcair can do it now that they have one well known "guy" in the province. But at the same time, Layton is quite liked here. Hell, he was at the forefront of the Saint Jean Baptiste parade this year, hand in hand with Duceppe and pretty much everyone thought that was neat.


That's what I'm thinking about Mulcair; he might be the foot in the door. It looks like he's murdered a Liberal stronghold, and if he continues to hold it after the next election then that's a considerable victory. From there, all he has to do is remain in the public spotlight and not embarrass the party. The longer the NDP has an accepted presence, the stronger an alternative they become.

But, yeah, I get what you mean about socialists often being seperatists. It's kind of a shame the Bloc doesn't just fade from existence. I get their role, but I think that Quebec would have a much stronger, more productive voice in the nation with the NDP. But that's the difference, isn't it? One party wants to work within Canada, the other wants out.

[Freedom Canadian]

But that's the difference, isn't it? One party wants to work within Canada, the other wants out.

Guess which one I'm voting for in the next election. :)


What say you? It is useless? Ay, I know
But who fights ever hoping for success?
I fought for lost cause, and for fruitless quest!

- Cyrano de Bergerac

;)

BTW, it's the second time the NDP wins a seat in Québec.